For a variety of reasons, sitting fourth in this year's NFL Draft provides plenty of possibilities.
Scott Shaw, The Plain DealerWith less than three weeks remaining before the draft's opening round, Browns President Mike Holmgren, left, and General Manager Tom Heckert have a variety of strategies that could be in play on April 26. CLEVELAND, Ohio -- With the April 26 NFL Draft less than three weeks away, this much is certain: Quarterbacks Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III will be gone after two selections.
Luck, from Stanford, is the presumptive No. 1 overall pick by the Indianapolis Colts. Nothing coming from Colts headquarters indicates otherwise. Griffin, the Heisman Trophy winner from Baylor, is the player the Washington Redskins' football minds and marketing department coveted when they gave up a truckload to the St. Louis Rams in order to trade up four spots.
The Minnesota Vikings at No. 3 are supposedly locked on Matt Kalil, a left tackle from Southern California. Kalil is considered a premium prospect, to be sure, and the Vikings could use him for the next 10 years. But Kalil, largely because of his position, can be bypassed at the right price. Put it this way: Teams who might want to trade up to No. 3 this year don't have Kalil in mind.
If it happens, it likely will be because of Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill, whose stock has soared in recent weeks even though he has not played a game. The Miami Dolphins, for one, will want to deal with the Vikings because they fear the team directly behind them might take Tannehill.
Which brings us to the Browns at No. 4. For a variety of reasons -- among them: the Browns' needs; other teams' needs; how free agency has unfolded; and the makeup of the draft -- the situation is full of possibilities.
Here are the Browns' main options for No. 4, listed in no particular order:
Trade up
Case for: If the Browns truly believe Tannehill is a franchise-caliber QB, they might need to move up to get him. The Miami Dolphins, starving at the position and unfulfilled after free agency, figure to be the principal competitor. Their new offensive coordinator, Mike Sherman, was Tannehill's head coach at Texas A&M.
Minnesota would be foolish not to at least entertain feelers from the Browns and Dolphins. Among other teams that might be interested in Tannehill: the Buffalo Bills, who are at No. 10. The Bills have spent a lot of money on Ryan Fitzpatrick but could be getting restless already.
Trade-ups also might be necessary to fend off a team that covets Alabama running back Trent Richardson, Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon or LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne -- and that team fears Cleveland wants their player, as well.
Case against: Tannehill, as gifted as he is, remains a project. He made just 19 college starts at quarterback after playing 31 games as receiver earlier in his career. Because of the lack of experience, he likely would not even beat out Colt McCoy in a training-camp competition. No. 4 picks need to be instant-impact starters; No. 3 even more so. Trading up means losing a pick somewhere, and the Browns cannot afford to do so because they have too many holes. The Browns' Tom Heckert cherishes picks as much as any general manager in the league.
Chances: Won't happen. How do we know? Because Heckert said so -- and it didn't sound like the typical pre-draft misdirection.
Trade down
AP fileThe spike in pre-draft hype for Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill creates a scenario in which the Browns could conceivably trade up -- or, more likely, down -- as another team (Miami, perhaps) takes the draft's third-best QB prospect. Case for: The 2012 draft is especially fertile ground for the trade down if a team does not own one of the top two picks. What the prospect pool lacks in absolute must-gets, it attempts to make up for in quantity. There are dozens of projected starters, especially at defensive line, linebacker and receiver. Teams that have stockpiled picks within the first three rounds will benefit most.
Multiple trade-down scenarios seem plausible, including:
• A team such as the Dolphins wants Tannehill more than Cleveland does.
• The receiver-thin Jacksonville Jaguars or Rams want Blackmon more than Cleveland does. How interesting it would be if Heckert gets the call from St. Louis, the franchise that reportedly chose the Redskins' offer over the Browns' in the RG3 sweepstakes.
• A team drafting below No. 5 covets Claiborne and is afraid Cleveland, or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 5, will take him.
• A team covets Richardson and is afraid Cleveland, or the Buccaneers at 5, will take him.
Case against: Trading down diminishes the percentages for getting an "impact" player, whom the Browns sorely need for their roster and beleaguered fan base.
Nothing tempers the enthusiasm of the faithful on draft day quite like trading down. It is akin to sitting for a Christmas feast, only to have The Grinch rip off the roast beast. The Browns traded down last year, securing an additional first-round pick from the Atlanta Falcons, who moved up to draft receiver Julio Jones. As fans took note of Jones playing well as a rookie, they counted the days for their team's next crack at adding big-name star power.
Chances: Possible -- but not out of the top 10.
Draft Matt Kalil
Case for: Assuming the Vikings go in a different direction, the Browns could slide Kalil to right tackle to fill a huge need opposite perennial Pro Bowler Joe Thomas. The Browns will have superior tackles flanking a quality center (Alex Mack) for years.
Case against: Imagine the reaction from Cleveland fans when Commissioner Roger Goodell says, "With the fourth pick in the 2012 NFL draft, the Cleveland Browns select ... Matt Kalil, offensive tackle, USC." Most importantly, if Kalil were to join the Browns, he would not play the position that is tied to his best value. Right tackles simply should not be going in the top five. As much as the Browns could use O-line help, there are more pressing needs, such as quarterback, running back and receiver.
Chances: Won't happen.
Draft Ryan Tannehill
Case for: The Browns need a difference-maker at quarterback, and Tannehill is potentially the best draft option after Luck and Griffin. More than a few analysts have heaped praise on Tannehill in the run-up to the draft.
Tannehill is big, strong, agile and mobile. Can make all the throws required at NFL level. Makes plays outside the pocket when necessary. Excelled at Manning Passing Academy in 2011. Intelligent, with instinctive feel for game. Team player. Even though he likely will require an adjustment period, it will be worth the wait.
Case against (See also trade up): Browns need to find out what McCoy can do with an upgraded supporting cast. Even if they aren't high on McCoy, Tannehill would need time to develop, and the Browns can't afford to wait on anybody. Tannehill's stock has risen in the past month only because of a lack of QB sizzle beyond Luck and Griffin. Therefore, drafting him at No. 4 would be a serious reach.
Tannehill's numbers dropped off against Texas A&M's best opponents in 2011, and his highlight reel lacks "wow factor" throws. Nobody knows Tannehill better than Sherman: If Tannehill is available at No. 4, it means the Dolphins must not have done everything in their power to get him -- which, in turn, means he might not be as good as many think.
Chances: Unlikely.
Draft Justin Blackmon
Case for: Best receiver in the draft. Combines power with "game speed" -- opponents rarely run him down. Clocked hand-timed sub-4.50 in the 40-yard dash at pro day, where he put on a show. Makes the difficult catch seem routine. Secures the ball in traffic as easily as in space. Physicality enables him to pile up yards after catch, which are a key ingredient in the West Coast offense. Gained plenty of experience at pass-happy Oklahoma State.
If the Browns were to pick Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden at No. 22 or 37, they would own one of college football's most lethal QB/WR duos in recent memory. Blackmon immediately would be the best receiver on the Browns and take pressure off, among others, Greg Little. If the Browns pass on Blackmon, they might not be able to get the second-best receiver, Notre Dame's Michael Floyd, by the time they pick again. For a team in need of offensive playmakers, that's a concern.
Case against: Blackmon seemingly lacks straight-line speed to separate from the best corners, who would be assigned to him at least for 2012 season. Measured 6-0 7/8 at the NFL Combine in February, shorter than most analysts thought based on watching film. A lack of blazing speed, in particular, makes it difficult to justify No. 4 overall. Notre Dame's Floyd has closed the gap on Blackmon enough that teams won't feel bad if they "settle" for Floyd.
Chances: Conceivable.
Draft Trent Richardson
Case for: Best running back in draft -- by plenty. Arguably the most NFL-ready player in draft. Product of the BCS national champion Crimson Tide, which means he has faced good competition and is well-coached. Combination of power and speed makes him effective inside and outside the tackles. Low center of gravity helps him bounce off would-be tacklers. As with Blackmon, Richardson possesses "game speed." Finds another gear when he turns the corner. Catches passes and picks up blitzers. Plays with an attitude.
Would fill a huge need on the Browns given the free-agent departure of Peyton Hillis and injury questions surrounding Montario Hardesty. Did not run at the combine because of a knee scope, but he did run at his pro day in late March and was outstanding. A large contingent of Browns personnel watched. Browns President Mike Holmgren no doubt remembers the 2000 draft, when his Seahawks drafted a 5-11, 225-pound stud of a running back from Alabama at 19th overall. Shaun Alexander eventually helped the Seahawks and Holmgren get to the Super Bowl.
Case against: Premium running-back prospect, wrong era. In a passing league, it is difficult to justify taking a running back in the top five unless he is Adrian Peterson. Some of the best running backs in the NFL were taken after the first round (two examples: Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens, second; Arian Foster, Houston Texans, undrafted). The Browns don't need great running game to be effective with their West Coast scheme, and they have more pressing offensive needs -- notably, quarterback and receiver.
This draft class features one elite RB prospect but a number of good ones, most of whom should be available in the second, third and even fourth rounds. The Browns still believe Hardesty can justify his high draft status; taking Richardson would be an admission that they missed on Hardesty pick.
Chances: Entirely possible.
Draft Morris Claiborne
Case for: Best defensive back in the draft. Product of perennial power Louisiana State. Excellent hands. Ball hawk. Seemingly always in balance. Browns could use an upgrade at cornerback opposite Joe Haden. Recent wrist surgery won't be a problem for a corner.
Case against: The Browns are much further behind offensively than defensively. Claiborne is a terrific corner, but he is not quite Patrick Peterson, his former LSU teammate now with the Arizona Cardinals. Claiborne ran a so-so 4.50 in the 40 at the combine -- although he rallied with a 4.39 at his pro day. At the combine, where Claiborne measured 5-111/8, he said he is more a technician than overly physical. In a league with more and more tall, physical receivers, the Browns would have starting corners who stand under 6 feet and are not speed merchants. At LSU, Claiborne tended to play more upright. He will need to bend his knees more in the NFL.
Chances: Doubtful.
Draft someone else
Case for: Just because most pundits figure any combination of Kalil, Blackmon, Claiborne, Richardson and Tannehill will immediately follow Luck/Griffin does not make it automatic. Two defensive linemen projected to go in the top 10 are particularly intriguing: South Carolina defensive end Melvin Ingram and Memphis defensive tackle Dontari Poe.
Ingram has drawn raves for his skill set, motor and character. He is versatile enough to play linebacker in certain schemes. The 6-31/2", 346-pound Poe was sensational at the combine. He benched 225 pounds 44 times and ran a 4.98 in the 40.
Case against: The Browns see what everybody else sees, and they won't try to get cute and reinvent the wheel. Ingram, at 6-11/2" and 264 pounds with 311/2-inch arms, is a 'tweener. Poe underachieved at Memphis, and the Browns are covered at DT with Phil Taylor and Ahtyba Rubin.
Chances: Won't happen.