The Indians have a lot more than 10 questions staring them in the face for the 2011 season. With spring training starting Tuesday in Goodyear, Ariz., these 10 will have to do.
Scott Shaw / The Plain DealerThe degree to which a healthy Grady Sizemore can contribute to the Indians' offense will go a long way toward making the lineup far more formidable in 2011. CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Indians and Yankees don't have much in common besides playing in the American League. Still, there are ties that bind.
They're not perfect. The Indians lost 93 games last season and if the Yankees had it all figured out, Bartolo Colon wouldn't be going to camp with a chance to win a job in their starting rotation.
What we have here are two teams, just like their 28 partners, who have questions about what lies ahead. Spring training begins this week. The 162-game regular season follows.
The Yankees' payroll, pushing $200 million, will provide the answers to most questions. The Indians' payroll of between $45 million and $50 million is hardly enough to solve the concerns facing manager Manny Acta and first-year GM Chris Antonetti.
Just in case they've forgotten, here are 10 of the biggest questions facing the Tribe in 2011.
1. How much can a healthy Grady Sizemore improve an offense that finished 26th in the big leagues with 646 runs?
Best case scenario: Sizemore's left knee is sound and he returns to his old form when he averaged 116 runs and played 160 games per season from 2005-08.
Worst case scenario: Sizemore's knee isn't fully healed and the Indians' second-highest paid player at $7.5 million is idle for much of the year.
What will probably happen: As a precaution Sizemore doesn't join the Indians until mid-April, but regains his skills. The Indians trade him to a contender before the July 31 or Aug. 31 trading deadlines rather than exercising his 2012 club option for $9 million.
The trade turns Sizemore's option for 2012 into a player's option. He can become a free agent or accept the option. It could make him harder to trade unless he's playing well and a team really needs him.
Stat attack: If Sizemore was healthy last year and contributed his average number of runs over the course of a full season -- minus the 15 he did score last year -- the Indians would have gone from 26th to 13th in runs scored in the big leagues.
2. Who is going to play second and third base?
Al Behrman / Associated PressAt 36, Orlando Cabrera will either be a steady contributor at second base for a team looking to give prospects some more seasoning, or a utility infielder. Best case scenario: Orlando Cabrera wins the second base job midway through spring training. Jason Donald emerges from the pack to take third in a close competition with Jayson Nix, Luis Valbuena and Jack Hannahan.
It works out well because the Indians can let Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis, Cord Phelps and Jared Goedert get more experience in the minors. In September, Chisenhall, Kipnis, Phelps and Goedert get a taste of the big leagues in preparation for 2012.
Worst case scenario: Cabrera turns into Shawon Dunston and can't make the transition from shortstop to second base. Dunston, a great shortstop with the Cubs, couldn't play second for the Tribe in the spring of 1998 and became a utility player.
Donald has trouble at third once the regular season starts. Nix struggles as well and the Indians are forced to bring Chisenhall to Cleveland before he's ready.
What will probably happen: Second baseman Orlando Cabrera and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera give the Indians a skilled, but tongue-twisting keystone combination. Donald, with help from Nix and others, keeps the hot corner cool until Chisenhall is ready.
Stat attack: Indians third basemen made 27 errors last year. Only four teams made more.
3. How do the Indians get the fans back to Progressive Field after finishing last in attendance in the big leagues in 2010?
Best case scenario: For the first time since 2007, the Indians have a good April and it carries into May and June.
Worst case scenario: The season-opening home series against Chicago gets snowed out. Grady Sizemore tweaks his left knee in center field on a rut that was caused by the re-sodding of the outfield because of Snow Days. Typical Indians stuff.
What will probably happen: Indians draw about 1.8 million as young players such as Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana and Carlos Carrasco give fans a reason to hope.
Stat attack: The biggest attendance spike in franchise history was 1,098,649 from 1947 to 1948. The Indians won their last World Series in 1948.
So all the 2011 Indians have to do is get to the World Series. No problem.
4. How much is Carlos Santana going to play this year?
Thomas Ondrey / The Plain DealerCarlos Santana will be participating fully in workouts when training camp begins, and the second-year catcher will carry much of the Indians' aspirations this season. Best case scenario: Santana proves his left knee is sound early in spring training and plays about 140 games during the regular season -- 115 behind the plate and 25 at first base.
Sandy Alomar Jr. shows him how to block the plate without having an ambulance idling in the ballpark concourse.
Worst case scenario: Santana's knee is fine, but the slump he was in just before he got hurt in August last season continues. He's optioned to Class AAA Columbus leaving Lou Marson to catch.
What will probably happen: Santana goes through his ups and downs offensively and defensively, but he hits and drives in runs from the middle of the lineup.
Stat attack: Santana averaged .59 runs per game last year (23 runs in 39 games). At that pace this year, he'd score 83 runs in 140 games. That would have led the Indians last year.
5. Can Fausto Carmona put together two consecutive good seasons as the No. 1 starter?
Best case scenario: Carmona continues to refine his delivery and focus this season. He makes his second straight trip to the All-Star game and even pitches this time.
Worst case scenario: Carmona regresses to his 2008 performance. The Indians can't send him back to rookie ball as they did in 2008 because he's out of options, so they trade him to the Yankees.
What will probably happen: Carmona pitches well, so well that the Indians exercise his $9 million club option for 2011 at the end of the season.
Stat attack: Carmona's won-loss record as an Indian: 1-10 in 2006; 19-8 in 2007; 8-7 in 2008; 5-12 in 2009 and 13-14 in 2010.
6. Would the Indians release Travis Hafner this year if he's not productive?
Ted S. Warren / Associated PressTravis Hafner may never truly return to his "Pronk" glory days, but the Indians are still hoping for 20 homers and 80 RBI from their DH this summer. Best case scenario: Hafner is able to play 130 games for the first time since playing 152 in 2007. His old power gone, Hafner more and more resembles the hitter who batted .329 (51-for-155) with 15 doubles, five homers and 21 RBI in 44 games last year after the All-Star break.
Worst case scenario: Hafner spends much of the season on the disabled list because of his right shoulder. The Indians release him after the year.
What will probably happen: Hafner plays between 110 and 120 games. He hits 15 to 20 home runs, drives in 50 to 60 runs and has an OPS over .800. In the off-season, ownership must decide if they're willing to live with that kind of production for one more year or cut its losses.
Stat attack: After hitting 141 homers from 2003-07, Hafner has 34 in 2009-10.
7. Can the starting rotation produce enough double-digit winners to compete in the AL Central this year?
Best case scenario: Last year, the Twins won the AL Central with six pitchers winning 10 or more games. That's not going to happen with the Indians, but Fausto Carmona, Mitch Talbot and Justin Masterson could make it three this year.
Worst case scenario: The Indians don't produce a double-digit winner for the first time since 1987 when Scott Bailes, Phil Niekro and Tom Candiotti led the club with seven wins each.
What will probably happen: If Carmona and Masterson -- another trade possibility -- stay with the team all year, they should each win 10 plus. If Talbot can stay healthy, he has a chance. If not, perhaps Carlos Carrasco and Josh Tomlin can surprise.
Stat attack: The last time the Indians had three starters with double-digit victories, they won 96 games in 2007. CC Sabathia (19-7), Carmona (19-8) and Paul Byrd (15-8) hit the trifecta.
Indians Spring Training / Goodyear, Ariz.
- Tuesday: Pitchers/catchers report.
- Thursday: First official workout.
- Friday: Remainder of players report.
- Feb. 20: First scheduled full-squad workout.
- Feb. 27: Spring opener vs. Cincinnati in Goodyear, Ariz., 3:05.
- March 29: Camp closes.
- March 30: Exhibition game at Columbus Clippers, 1:05.
- April 1: Opening Day vs. Chicago White Sox, 3:05.
8. What does the offense have to do to be a contender?
Best case scenario: The four AL playoff teams from 2010 averaged 807 runs each. The Indians would need to score 161 more runs from last year to reach 807. Full seasons from Sizemore, Asdrubal Cabrera, Santana, Shin-Soo Choo, Hafner, LaPorta and Brantley could make that happen.
Worst case scenario: Scoring 800 runs doesn't guarantee anything. The Indians scored 805 runs in 2008 and the best they could do was 81-81. Still, that would be an improvement over last year's 69-93 record.
What will probably happen: If the top hitters have good health, they will top last year's 646 runs.
Stat attack: The 646 runs the Indians scored last year were their fewest since 1991 when they scored 576. They lost a franchise record 105 games that year.
9. Can the pitching staff strike out more batters, while issuing fewer walks?
Chuck Crow / The Plain DealerJustin Masterson has the ability to be the Indians' best strikeout pitcher, or the starter with the least control over his stuff. Which will it be in 2011? Best case scenario: Indians pitchers had the fewest strikeouts (967) in the big leagues last year. Only four teams walked more batters than the Tribe's total of 572. There's nowhere to go but up.
Worst case scenario: Masterson, the Indians' top strikeout pitcher last season, gets traded back to Boston. Or Masterson, who issued more walks than any Indians pitcher last year, doesn't get traded back to Boston. It depends.
What will probably happen: The young pitchers learn from last year's experience and throw more strikes. But that doesn't necessarily lead to more strikeouts.
Stat attack: The World Series-champion Giants led all pitching staffs with 1,331 strikeouts last year. The AL Central-champion Twins led the big leagues with the fewest walks with 383.
10. Can Shin-Soo Choo do it again?
Best case scenario: Over the last 21/2 seasons, Choo is hitting .307 (412-for-1343) with 89 doubles, 10 triples, 53 homers, 224 RBI and 45 steals. Most of that was done minus a great threat hitting in front or behind him. There is no reason to think that won't continue.
Worst case scenario: Last year Choo dodged a season-ending thumb injury trying to make a diving catch in the outfield. Perhaps he is not so lucky this year.
What will probably happen: Choo, who helped South Korea win a gold medal in the Asian Games to earn a military exemption, turns in another quality season.
Stat attack: Last season Choo's WAR (Wins Above Replacement) rating was 7.3 compared to AL MVP Josh Hamilton's 6.0 and runner-up Miguel Cabrera's 6.9. WAR is a number that calculates the number of team wins a player is worth above whoever would replace him.