A quick look at the quarterback position in 2016 fantasy football leagues with the position's tier structure, followed by rankings, sleepers and busts.
A quick look at the quarterback position in 2016 fantasy football leagues with the position's tier structure, followed by rankings, sleepers and busts.
TIER STRUCTURE
TIER 1
1. Cam Newton, CAR
2. Aaron Rodgers, GB
3. Russell Wilson, SEA
TIER 2
4. Andrew Luck, IND
5. Drew Brees, NO
6. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
TIER 3
7. Tom Brady, NE
8. Derek Carr, OAK
9. Matthew Stafford, DET
10. Carson Palmer, ARI
TIER 4
11. Jameis Winston, TB
12. Blake Bortles, JAC
13. Philip Rivers, SD
14. Eli Manning, NYG
TIER 5
15. Kirk Cousins, WAS
16. Dak Prescott, DAL
17. Marcus Mariota, TEN
18. Tyrod Taylor, BUF
19. Andy Dalton, CIN
20. Brock Osweiler, HOU
Offseason moves and their fantasy impact
TOP 20 RANKINGS
1. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
2015 stats: 296 of 495 for 3,837 yards, 35 TD, 10 INT; 132 rush, 636 yards, 10 TD
2016 projections: 310 of 515 for 4,000 yards, 31 TDs, 12 INTs; 122 rush, 590 yards, 7 TDs
The tighter the field got last season, the better Newton was, which helped fuel his MVP campaign. He emerged as perhaps the NFL's best red-zone force with a higher completion percentage (61.4%) and 34 total touchdowns (10 rush) in the red zone, compared to 50 percent completions and 15 total scores in 2014. Newton made the leap without his top receiver, Kelvin Benjamin, who returns to the lineup this season to play alongside Pro Bowl tight end Greg Olsen and another emerging young wideout in Devin Funchess, who got better in the second half of his rookie season. Newton might not quite match his touchdown production from 2015, but he's no fluke, either.
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
2015 stats: 347 of 572 for 3,821 yards, 31 TD, 8 INT; 58 rush, 344 yards, 1 TD
2016 projections: 355 of 500 for 4,100 yards, 39 TD, 7 INT; 60 rush, 310 yards, 3 TD
Rodgers was dealt a tough hand almost immediately last summer when top target Jordy Nelson was lost with an ACL injury. Not only that, but running back Eddie Lacy struggled in his third season, Davante Adams fell short of expectations and tight end Andrew Quarless was lost to a knee injury. The end result was the worst completion percentage of Rodgers' career (60.7%) and a huge drop in his yards per attempt (6.68), passer rating (92.7) and touchdowns (31). Rodgers willed himself to a QB1 effort with minimal support. Nelson isn't a sure thing to be 100 percent early in 2016, but he's bound to return and help Rodgers bounce back in a big way.
3. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
2015 stats: 329 of 483 for 4,024 yards, 34 TD, 8 INT; 103 rush, 553 yards, 1 TD
2016 projections: 335 of 500 for 4,150 yards, 33 TD, 7 INT; 100 rush, 600 yards, 4 TD
Wilson took a huge leap forward as a passer, continuing a trend of Seattle giving the young star more and more responsibility in the 'Hawks' offense. Statistical improvements across the board did plenty to offset the inevitable regression in his rushing numbers (553 yards, 1 TD) after a superhuman effort in 2014, when he rushed for 849 yards and six touchdowns. Wilson has more to offer with his legs and could still be asked to do more as a passer with the retirement of Marshawn Lynch and arguably the best collection of receivers in his career with Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, Jimmy Graham and dynamic rookie running back C.J. Prosise.
4. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
2015 stats: 162 of 293 for 1,881 yards, 15 TD, 12 INT; 33 rush, 196 yards, 0 TD
2016 projections: 390 of 620 for 4,600 yards, 33 TD, 15 INT; 61 rush, 300 yards, 3 TD
Luck was battered physically and emotionally last season, which was compounded by huge expectations placed on the Colts from the outset. Luck regressed from the 40-touchdown form he showed in 2014 as his accuracy suffered and turnovers soared. He missed a total of nine games with broken ribs and was ineffective early, which masked the progress he began to show before being put on the shelf after Week 9. Assuming he's upright and rediscovers his accuracy -- his completion percentage dropped 6.4 points to 55.3 percent in 2015 -- Luck is a good bet to get back on track. A heavy volume will help make up for a likely big turnover number.
5. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
2015 stats: 428 of 627 for 4,870 yards, 32 TD, 11 INT; 24 rush, 14 yards, 1 TD
2016 projections: 450 of 660 for 5,100 yards, 36 TD, 14 INT; 29 rush, 50 yards, 1 TD
Brees got off to a slow start and endured an early-season shoulder injury that limited his productivity with eight touchdown passes through six games. He was also breaking in a new group of wide receivers with zero proven commodities behind No. 1 Brandin Cooks, which contributed to the early issues as well. Neither the shoulder nor the playmakers should be problems early in 2016, which gives Brees sleeper potential as fantasy owners overlook him for age concerns. Impressive rookie Michael Thomas and free agent tight end Colby Fleener add to that collection of weapons. Brees has topped 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns every season since arriving in New Orleans in 2006. Even at 37, he's a virtual lock to do it again, potentially much more, in 2016.
Strategy: What to do with the No. 1 pick
6. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
2015 stats: 319 of 469 for 3,938 yards, 21 TD, 16 INT; 15 rush, 29 yards, 0 TD
2016 projections: 380 of 570 for 4,400 yards, 30 TD, 12 INT; 26 rush, 80 yards, 0 TD
Roethlisberger is one of the biggest, most physical quarterbacks in the NFL, which works against him in his quest to stay healthy. He takes a pounding, some unnecessarily, and it shows in the fact he's played 16 games just three times in 12 career seasons. But unquestionably, Roethlisberger is a better, more efficient quarterback under coordinator Todd Haley with five straight increases in his completion percentage and some of the best yardage totals of his career. Red-zone weapons, or lack there of, are worth watching. But with Antonio Brown on his side and a scheme that maximizes the short attack, Roethlisberger will be a consistent top-5 option whose volume ranks among his position's elite, provided he stays healthy.
8. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
2015 stats: 402 of 624 for 4,770 yards, 36 TD, 7 INT; 34 rush, 53 yards, 3 TD
2016 projections: 300 of 460 for 3,700 yards, 27 TD, 6 INT; 25 rush, 44 yards, TD
Brady is suspended for the first four games of the season as a penalty for the long, drawn-out "Deflategate" scandal that threatened the start of his 2015 season as well. He represents a difficult valuation in fantasy drafts, but his stability and the perfection of his craft still make him a borderline-elite option. Brady has shown no discernible signs of decline, in large part because the Patriots have successfully masked his limitations with a revamped approach. Instead of pushing the ball downfield, New England has focused on the short passing attack, which has allowed Brady to not miss a beat in recent seasons. He will be a high-end QB1 for 12 games, making him worth pursuing and pairing with a strong backup to serve the life of his suspension.
8. Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
2015 stats: 350 of 573 for 3,987 yards, 32 TD, 13 INT; 33 rush, 138 yards, 0 TD
2016 projections: 362 of 565 for 4,075 yards, 34 TD, 12 INT; 30 rush, 95 yards, 1 TD
Carr took a huge step forward last season after flashing his ability in the midst of rookie struggles in 2014. He strung together 11 multi-touchdown performances and tied for sixth in the NFL with 32 touchdown passes, all while improving his accuracy (61.1%) and yards per attempt (6.96). He's shown enough through two seasons to believe superstardom is within his reach, particularly as the Raiders load up for a playoff run this season. In addition to adding offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele, the Raiders can still get more from young playmakers Amari Cooper, Clive Walford, Latavius Murray and DeAndre Washington. All the makings are here for Carr to jump into the elite QB1 conversation, making him a key target for late-round quarterback strategists everywhere.
9. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
2015 stats: 398 of 592 for 4,262 yards, 32 TD, 13 INT; 44 rush, 159 yards, 1 TD
2016 projections: 425 of 650, 4,600 yards, 33 TD, 12 INT; 40 rush, 110 yards, 2 TD
The days of elite volume for Stafford, which began to slowly disapper over the past three seasons, could come back in a big way in 2016. The Lions are ill-equipped to pound the ball on the ground but have a more diverse set of options in the passing game, even without Calvin Johnson, who retired after the 2015 season. Stafford was a different quarterback following the transition to offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, throwing 19 touchdowns to three interceptions in his final eight games. The loss of Johnson could make life more difficult for Stafford, or it could free him from the burden of forcing it to Megatron in double and triple coverage. The addition of Marvin Jones can help replace some of Johnson's red-zone prowess without commanding targets into blanket coverage.
10. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals
2015 stats: 342 of 537 for 4,671 yards, 35 TD, 11 INT; 25 rush, 24 yards, 1 TD
2016 projections: 330 of 530 for 4,300 yards, 32 TD, 13 INT; 22 rush, 30 yards, 1 TD
Palmer took his late resurgence to another level last season with, in many respects, the best performance of his career. He led the NFL in passing average (8.7 ypa) and engineered a league-high five game-winning drives as he served as the ideal engineer in Arizona's downfield attack. His weapons were plentiful and diverse last season, but they should be even better with the expected rise to stardom of young running back David Johnson. Palmer has such command of Arizona's offense and a strong enough supporting cast to believe he can still elevate his play. With his age (36) and injury history, he comes with more red flags than his elite peers. But Palmer's production is legit after ranking No. 5 in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks a year ago.
11. Jameis Winston, QB, TB
2015 stats: 312 of 535 for 4,042 yards, 22 TD, 15 INT; 54 rush, 213 yards, 6 TD
2016 projections: 345 of 570 for 4,400 yards, 30 TD, 14 INT; 58 rush, 230 yards, 4 TD
Winston has the frame, the arm and the mind to make the leap to stardom sooner than later, considering he was one of just four rookies in NFL history to top 4,000 yards last season. He also had a higher passer rating (84.2) than both Peyton Manning (71.2) and Andrew Luck (76.5) did as rookies. Manning and Luck made significant Year 2 strides on their way to becoming fantasy forces. Winston should, too. And if Winston's efficiency improves and turnovers drop, he can surge into QB1 contention. His Week 3 preseason performance (259 yards, 2 TDs) suggests Winston has a chance to hit the ground running as a sophomore.
12. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars
2015 stats: 355 of 606 yards for 4,428 yards, 35 TD, 18 INT; 52 rush, 310 yards, 2 TD
2016 projections: 360 of 600 for 4,000 yards, 30 TD, 16 INT; 55 rush, 350 yards, 1 TD
Bortles still has plenty of untapped potential, which keeps him in the QB1 conversation in fantasy drafts despite legit concerns that he can't replicate his breakout 2015 season. He threw 32 of his 35 touchdown passes when the Jaguars were tied or trailing last season, a dynamic that could change with high-profile additions on both sides of the ball. Bortles is talented and provides sneaky value with his rushing ability, so predicting his demise would be a mistake. He should be approached with a good, healthy amount of pessimism, though, that any improvements he makes as a player will be offset by fewer scoring opportunities.
13. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
2015 stats: 437 of 661 for 4,792 yards, 29 TD, 13 INT; 17 rush, 28 yards, 0 TD
2016 projections: 395 of 595 for 4,400 yards, 32 TD, 11 INT; 27 rush, 50 yards, 0 TD
Given the Chargers' struggles to establish the run, Rivers cruised past new career-highs in completions (437), attempts (661) and yards (4,792) last season. Hard luck was also part of the equation with the season-opening suspension to Antonio Gates and the season-ending kidney injury suffered by Keenan Allen. Rivers has plenty of room for better fortune but also gets new weapons in Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams and talented rookie tight end Hunter Henry. The improvement of the rushing attack might take away a handful of opportunities, but it's otherwise key to a more functional, higher-scoring offense. Rivers hasn't lost much from his game after 12 career seasons, which gives him potential for a resurgence if his O-line holds up and his playmakers perform as advertised.
14. Eli Manning, New York Giants
2015 stats: 387 of 618 for 4,436 yards, 35 TD, 14 INT; 20 rush, 61 yards, 0 TD
2016 projections: 380 of 600 for 4,400 yards, 31 TD, 13 INT; 28 rush, 55 yards, 0 TD
Manning has found new life under Ben McAdoo, who was his coordinator for two seasons before accepting the head coaching position in the offseason. He's thrown 65 touchdown passes to 28 interceptions over the past two seasons, slashing his interception rate to 2.3 percent in both 2014 and '15, which are two of the best three marks of his career. And there's still promise for more, though it comes with a virtual certainty for multiple disastrous performances. Manning's weapons have improved with the addition of touted rookies Sterling Shepard and Paul Perkins, which add to the depth and diversity of the Giants' attack. Manning should again produce QB1 numbers while keeping his turnovers in check. Just beware of disasters ahead.
15. Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins
2015 stats: 379 of 543 for 4,166 yards, 29 TD, 11 INT; 26 rush, 48 yards, 5 TD
2016 projections: 345 of 530 for 4,000 yards, 30 TD, 14 INT; 22 rush, 40 yards, 2 TD
Cousins flipped a switch midway through the 2015 season and was among the top performers in fantasy football down the stretch. He and the Redskins couldn't agree to a long-term deal, so both sides will take a wait-and-see approach to the 2016 season. Fantasy owners would be wise to do the same. There's good reason to believe Cousins turned a corner last season as he surged with 23 touchdowns to just three interceptions over his final 10 games after posting a 6-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his first six. But he's got little more than half a season of QB1 play under his belt and is unlikely to match the five rushing touchdowns he scored a year ago. Cousins finished eighth among fantasy quarterbacks last season, which should be viewed as his upside in 2016.
16. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
2015 stats (college): 316 of 477 for 3,793 yards, 29 TD, 5 INT; 160 rush, 588 yards, 10 TD
2016: 185 of 300 for 2,700 yards, 20 TD, 10 INT; 80 rush, 420 yards, 3 TD
Prescott is the new Week 1 starter in Dallas after Tony Romo suffered a back injury that will sideline him for 6-10 weeks. The Cowboys are confident in the rookie's abilities, and everything they've seen from in the preseason suggests he has the right mix of arm, accuracy and "it" factor to do more than simply survive. Prescott has completed 39 of 50 passes for 454 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions while adding 53 rushing yards and two more scores in three preseason contests. If Prescott can manage games and continue to make plays with his legs, he has a chance to replicate Russell Wilson's success as a rookie, when he threw for 3,118 yards and 26 TDs in 2012. And who knows if or when Romo is well enough to return.
17. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
2015 stats: 230 of 370 for 2,818 yards, 19 TD, 10 INT; 34 rush, 252 yards, 2 TD
2016 projections: 320 of 500 for 3,800 yards, 25 TD, 9 INT; 55 rush, 340 yards, 4 TD
Mariota was a one-man band in Tennessee as a rookie starter in 2015. The Titans ranked No. 30 in the NFL in total offense, No. 28 in scoring and No. 25 in rushing with erratic play from the offensive line and Mariota's playmakers. The roster issues exaggerated Mariota's learning curve, but the No. 2 overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft still showed flashes of brilliance that look twice as promising in 2016. Tennessee invested in its offensive line, traded for DeMarco Murray, signed veteran receivers Andre Johnson and Rishard Matthews and drafted Derrick Henry and Tajae Sharpe. Throw in Mariota's expected Year 2 bump and the potential for even more rushing contributions, and it all adds up huge breakout potential.
18. Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills
2015 stats: 242 of 380 for 3,035 yards, 20 TD, 6 INT; 104 rush, 568 yards, 4 TD
2016 projections: 275 of 425 for 3,400 yards, 22 TD, 8 INT; 110 rush, 600 yards, 3 TD
Taylor is being approached -- and drafted -- under the assumption he's a one-year wonder, which is understandable after his unlikely rise from obscurity. But his skill set is legitimate and he has the ability to make a wide variety of plays and protect the ball. In addition to ranking second among quarterbacks with 568 rushing yards last season, Taylor also ranked seventh in passer rating (99.1) and fifth in yards per attempt (7.99). He was dynamic and lived up to his billing as a true dual threat under a coach in Rex Ryan who trusted him completely. The big issue in projecting Taylor in 2016 isn't that he'll regress, but rather he will get injured. Taylor has a small frame and exposes himself to hits when he eludes the pocket.
19. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
2015 stats: 255 of 386 for 3,250 yards, 25 TD, 7 INT; 57 rush, 142 yards, 3 TD
2016 projections: 330 of 510 for 3,900 yards, 28 TD, 12 INT; 62 rush, 175 yards, 3 TD
Dalton "arrived" in a lot of ways last season with career-best marks in completion percentage (66.1%), yards per attempt (8.42) and rating (106.3), but a thumb injury cost him a shot at a true breakout. The offseason brought more upheaval when the Bengals opted not to re-sign Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu and lost offensive coordinator Hue Jackson to the Cleveland Browns. Pro Bowl tight end Tyler Eifert is also out at least four weeks with an ankle injury. Those are variables in projecting Dalton's fantasy fortunes, but to assume a major setback would be to credit others with too much of Dalton's success. The transition to first-year coordinator Ken Zampese should be smooth. Rookie Tyler Boyd and a healthy A.J. Green can help offset the personnel losses.
20. Brock Osweiler, Houston Texans
2015 stats: 170 of 275 for 1,967 yards, 10 TD, 6 INT; 21 rush, 61 yards, 1 TD
2016 projections: 350 of 560 for 3,900 yards, 29 TD, 13 INT; 40 rush, 130 yards, 1 TD
Osweiler left Denver for Houston as the new centerpiece of a reloaded offense that also picked up running back Lamar Miller and rookie wide receivers Will Fuller and Braxton Miller. The unit has already flashed more excitement in the preseason with Osweiler showing a steady hand and Fuller, a first-round pick in the 2016 draft, stretching the field opposite Pro Bowler DeAndre Hopkins. Texans coach Bill O'Brien pushes his quarterbacks hard and tends to get results, and now he gets a former second-round pick in Osweiler who spent his first four seasons as an understudy to Peyton Manning. All the pieces are in place for Osweiler, who completed 170 of 275 passes for 1,967 yards with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions for the Broncos last season. Now, he must go out and prove it.
SLEEPERS
Derek Carr, OAK: Carr still has a thing or two to prove, so fantasy owners aren't quite taking the plunge in preseason drafts. The Raiders made a deep commitment to loading up on weapons and protection in front of him, and it should pay off.
Dak Prescott, DAL: Prescott's value is soaring, and for good reason. He has the arm, the legs and the supporting cast to make a smooth transition into an NFL starter. Consistency might be a problem, so he remains in QB2 territory.
Jameis Winston, TB: Winston isn't getting enough buzz as a candidate to make a huge leap. He entered the league with pro-ready qualities and arrived in a favorable situation with big playmakers Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson.
BUSTS
Cam Newton, CAR: Newton is a running and throwing force who could very well lead quarterbacks in fantasy scoring again. But even if he repeats his '15 numbers, which he won't, the cost of a second-rounder is too steep at fantasy's deepest position.
Carson Palmer, ARI: The Cardinals offense has struggled in the preseason, which might or might not be meaningful for Palmer. But the veteran played the best football in his career in '15, and he's being drafted as if he'll do it again, which isn't guaranteed.
Blake Bortles, JAC: Bortles had so much success when he was in positions to air it out when the Jaguars led or trailed. With so many improvements up and down the Jacksonville roster, those opportunities are bound to dry up in his third season.