The Indians, no matter how you cut it, are going to have to win a big chunk of the 20 games left on their schedule to have a chance at winning an AL wild card spot.
CLEVELAND, Ohio - Point and counterpoint on the Indians' chances of winning an AL wild card spot.
No. 1. The Indians will win a wild card because the starting rotation keeps getting stronger.
Corey Kluber is expected to rejoin the rotation Thursday after being sidelined since Aug. 29 with a sore right hamstring. Kluber would be the third starter to rejoin the rotation since late August after dealing with an injury.
Cody Anderson is 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA in four starts since being activated on Aug. 26 after going on the DL with a strained left oblique.
Carlos Carrasco is 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA since returning on Sept. 8 from a sore right shoulder.
Josh Tomlin, who took Anderson's spot in the rotation, is 5-1 with a 2.85 ERA since arriving from Class AAA Columbus and making his first start on Aug. 15. Tomlin's arrival and the returns of Anderson and Carrasco have resulted in a 8-2 record in 12 starts for the Tribe.
Counterpoint: The Indians won't win a wild card because the bullpen is showing signs of wear.
Manager Terry Francona needs to find some bridge builders to get the ball from the starters to the late-inning arms of Bryan Shaw and closer Cody Allen. Right now Shaw, in particular, is getting overexposed.
Jeff Manship has been great in that role as was Zach McAllister for much of the season. McAllister, however, has struggled of late and Francona doesn't have a whole lot of other options.
On the left-hand side, Francona misses veteran Marc Rzepczynski. The Indians traded Rzepczynski to San Diego on July 31 for Abraham Almonte. They couldn't be happier with Almonte's contributions at the plate and in center field, but Francona could use a veteran lefty to ease the load on youngsters Kyle Crockett and Giovanni Soto.
No. 2. The Indians will win a wild card because the players finally believe they can do it.
They are playing pressure-free baseball and loving it. As Mike Aviles said over the weekend, "No one expected us to be here but us."
They're 7-5 in September and 29-25 since the All-Star break.
"Everyone in this locker room knows how good we are," said Manship. "We are definitely aware of where we are. All we can do is keep winning games because someone, I'm sure, is going to falter at some point. So all we can do is keep winning games and hope for the best."
Counterpoint: The Indians won't win a wild card because they're running out of games.
There's always another game in baseball until there isn't. The Indians have 20 games remaining.
"That's more than enough time," said Manship.
Is it really?
No. 3: The Indians will win the wild card because the schedule favors them.
"We're playing the right teams in September," said right fielder Lonnie Chisenhall.
The Indians, starting tonight, will play the Royals six times, the Twins seven times, the White Sox three times and Boston three times. They also have a makeup game against Detroit that has not been rescheduled.
The Royals have a nine-game lead in the AL Central. Barring a catastrophe by manager Ned Yost's team, the Indians' best shot is the wild card, in which they trail No. 2 wild-card Texas by 4 1/2 games. The Twins and Angels are the two teams separating the Indians from the Rangers.
So those seven games against Twins are important.
Counterpoint: The Indians won't win a wild card because the schedule hurts them as much as it helps them.
Yes, the Indians play the Twins seven times, but they're 5-7 against them. The Indians have out-hit Minnesota, .294-.243.
While the Indians have plenty of games against the Twins, they do not play the Yankees, Texas and Angels. The Yankees hold the first wild card spot, three games ahead of Texas. The Twins trail Texas by one game and the Angels are four games back.
The Indians are a combined 12-7 against the Yankees, Rangers and Angels this season, but now they have to rely on the help of others and that's always a tricky proposition.
No.4. The Indians will win a wild card because they're getting contributions from the entire lineup.
Michael Brantley, who has played himself into the AL MVP picture for the second straight year, is hitting .365 (70-for-192) with 10 homers, 35 RBI and a 1.053 OPS since the All-Star break. On Thursday, he had a Jason Giambi moment with consecutive homers in the seventh and eighth innings to lift the Indians to a 7-5 win over the Tigers when things were at their darkest.
Shortstop Francisco Lindor is hitting .351 (74-for-211) with six homers, 28 RBI and a .930 OPS since the break. In doing so, he's made himself a leading contender for the AL Rookie of the Year award.
Chisenhall is hitting .333 (35-for-105) with two homers and 19 RBI since the break. He's also made the switch from third base to right field where he's played exceptional defense.
Yan Gomes isn't hitting for average, but has supplied some thunder in the second half. He's second to Brantley with eight homers and 32 RBI in the second half.
Ryan Raburn, Chris Johnson, Jose Ramirez, Roberto Perez, Jerry Sands, Almonte and Aviles have all had their moments since the break.
Counterpoint: The Indians won't win a wild card spot because of the second-half struggles of Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana.
Kipnis and Santana are two of the Indians' most trusted hitters. Kipnis, who has batted leadoff much of the year, went to the All-Star Game hitting .323 (112-for-347) with 59 runs, six homers, 37 RBI and a .889 OPS. He's hitting .253 (39-for-154) with 19 runs, two homers, 10 RBI and a .673 OPS since the break.
He also went on the disabled list with a sore right shoulder in August.
Santana has hit cleanup for most of the year. He hit .221 (63-for-348) with 10 homers, 40 RBI and a .736 OPS in the first half while dealing with a sore back. In the second, he's hitting .253 (50-for-198) with five homers, 28 RBI and a .751 OPS.
Rarely does an entire lineup get hot at the same time, but if the Indians are going to play baseball past Oct. 4, they're going to need help from Kipnis and Santana.