Will the White Sox's rebounding veterans be able to hold off the slugging Tigers and the inconsistent Indians for the division?
Duane Burleson, Associated PressMiguel Cabrera (left) and Prince Fielder give the Tigers the best 1-2 punch in the AL Central, but pitching struggles and injuries have kept Detroit out of the division lead so far this season. CLEVELAND, Ohio -- As the calendar flipped to 2012, the Detroit Tigers were heavy favorites to repeat as American League Central champions. Then Victor Martinez, one of their biggest contributors the previous season, tore up his left knee during off-season conditioning.
Just when it appeared the Tigers might be forced to sweat a bit, their ownership shocked the baseball world in late January by signing first baseman Prince Fielder to a contract north of $200 million. As good as Martinez can be, Fielder joining third baseman Miguel Cabrera and right-hander Justin Verlander at the top of a deep club created another dimension in Motown.
The question became not whether Detroit would win the Central, but by how many games.
But injuries and substandard performances caused a series of fits and starts that resulted in a pedestrian 44-42 record in baseball's first half. It opened the door for the rest of the division.
Two teams have been up to the task -- the first-place Chicago White Sox (47-38) and second-place Indians (44-41). Two teams have not -- Kansas City (37-47) and last-place Minnesota (36-49).
Here is a capsule look at the Central teams to date, with a look at their chances going forward:
1. White Sox
AP fileAlex Rios (51) and Adam Dunn have enjoyed bounce-back seasons in 2012 that have kept the White Sox atop the Central for much of the season. The two have combined for 37 homers and 110 RBI so far. Optimistic view: The White Sox are no fluke. They have the run-scoring offense required to succeed in the AL, and their pitching is more than sufficient. Their veterans will not melt under the heat lamp of a playoff chase.
They are getting contributions from old and young, playing hard and relaxed for manager Robin Ventura. DH Adam Dunn has returned to his slugging self (25 homers, 61 RBI), RF Alex Rios is locked in (.318, 12 HR, 49 RBI) and 1B Paul Konerko, as usual, is superb (.329, 14 HR, 42 RBI). The payoff from 3B Kevin Youkilis, acquired in a pre-deadline deadline trade from Boston, has just begun.
Lanky LHP Chris Sale (10-2, 2.19 ERA) has emerged as an ace at 23. His stuff, delivered nearly sidearm, is filthy. The White Sox have another quality 23-year-old LHP in Jose Quintana (4-1, 2.04).
Pessimistic view: The White Sox will be under siege immediately out of the break, going on a 10-game trip to Kansas City, Boston and Detroit. They will be hard-pressed to sustain their across-the-board RBI numbers (seven players have at least 37). Rios, who hit .227 last year, cannot be expected to finish at .318. Konerko already has begun to come back to the pack. He was hitting .399 on May 27.
RHP Jake Peavy (7-5, 2.85) has been injury-plagued the past several years. Sale's workload will catch up to him (102 2/3 innings after 71 with the White Sox last year in relief). Youkilis, despite his recent surge, no longer is dangerous over an extended period.
2. Indians (3 GB)
Paul Sancya, Associated PressUbaldo Jimenez had a solid June for the Indians, giving reason to believe he can be a reliable performer down the stretch.
Indians Chatter
They’re back: The Indians conducted a workout Thursday afternoon at Progressive Field before flying to Toronto. Attendance was mandatory except for All-Stars Chris Perez and Asdrubal Cabrera.
Hagadone update: The Indians announced that left-handed reliever Nick Hagadone (fractured left forearm) underwent surgery Tuesday at Cleveland Clinic. Dr. Thomas Graham inserted a screw as part of the surgery. Hagadone, who is expected to miss 8-10 weeks, suffered the injury in a fit of anger after an appearance last Friday against Tampa Bay. He was optioned to Class AAA Columbus the next day.
“I think Nick learned his lesson,” Indians manager Manny Acta said. “A big part of this game is being able to control your emotions.”
Sign here: As of late Thursday afternoon, the Indians had signed 23 of their 40 draft picks. The deadline to sign is Friday at 5 p.m.
— Dennis Manoloff
Optimistic view: The Indians have not played their best. Position players and pitchers have produced few unsustainable splits. Most of their resumes suggest they can perform better. C Carlos Santana (.221, 5 HR) is bound to rebound. He hit 27 homers last season. RHP Justin Masterson (5-8, 4.40) can be more consistent. The Indians survived injuries to DH Travis Hafner, 3B Jack Hannahan, RHP Josh Tomlin and LHP Rafael Perez. They might get OF Grady Sizemore (injury) and RHP Roberto Hernandez (identity theft) back in time to contribute.
The Tribe, guided by optimistic manager Manny Acta, is resilient. Its personnel has been able to quickly forget about "bad" losses.
Pessimistic view: The Indians, lacking stars, are playing to their capabilities. Their lineup does not have the power to run with the AL big boys. They are living dangerously with a run differential of minus-29. They do not match up well with the White Sox (4-8). Their lineup is left-handed-heavy, making them too easily neutralized by opposing bullpens.
Santana is caught in a down year, not a slump, just as Dunn was in 2011. RHP Derek Lowe was on fire early and sputtered. He is 39 and faded last season in Atlanta. Every team loses players to injuries.
Even though the Indians need help offensively and in the rotation, their front office probably won't be able to land a big name. There are many more buyers than sellers this season, and the Indians simply do not have enough prospects who wow potential suitors. Sizemore and Hernandez are wild cards, at best.
3. Tigers (3 1/2 GB)
Brian Blanco, Associated PressBack healthy again, Detroit's Austin Jackson provides speed on offense and a solid glove in center field for the Tigers' shaky defense. Optimistic view: The Tigers have too much talent to be mediocre. Their superstars will continue to put up huge numbers expressly because they are superstars. CF Austin Jackson lost time to injury but has emerged as a force offensively (64 games, .332 average, 54 runs). The trio of SS Jhonny Peralta, RF Brennan Boesch and C Alex Avila are better than they have shown. If those three contribute at 2011 levels, Detroit will be lethal.
RHP Doug Fister, so good last season after being acquired from Seattle, had injury issues and went 2-6 with a 4.75 ERA. He will resume being nasty.
Pessimistic view: The Tigers cannot expect to flip a switch for the second year in a row. They had numerous players perform over the heads in what was a magical season in 2011. Their infielders are not getting any quicker or faster, so shaky defense will continue to cost runs and games.
Verlander is not quite the same pitcher who went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA last season and earned the AL Cy Young and MVP. RHPs Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello, a combined 14-10, are too inconsistent. Jackson is going to come back to earth offensively.
4. Royals (9 1/2 GB)
Duane Burleson, Associated PressKansas City DH Billy Butler was a deserving All-Star representative, but the rest of the Royals' lineup have been inconsistent despite high preseason expectations. Optimistic view: They are too good to start another half 3-15. They have threats all over the lineup, beginning with Billy Butler (.290/16/52). Among those who figure to be better are 1B Eric Hosmer (.231/9/39) and RF Jeff Francoeur (.251/7/25) -- assuming, of course, that Francoeur is not shipped to a contender. The Royals play the Indians six times in the final two weeks, so staying motivated will not be an issue.
Pessimistic view: They have too many teams to pass and too many games to make up. Even if the Royals were to get huge years offensively up and down the lineup, they would labor because of bad starting pitching. Their top two in starts, LHP Bruce Chen and RHP Luke Hochevar, each has an ERA over 5.00. Only a few relievers might make opposing hitters remotely nervous.
SS Alcides Escobar, a career .263 hitter, cannot be expected to sustain his .307. Hosmer, young and largely unproven, might be caught in a down year.
5. Twins (11 GB)
Duane Burleson, Associated PressSure, Josh Willingham would look great in an Indians uniform, but are the Twins really going to deal away the producer of 19 homers and 60 RBI before the All-Star break? Optimistic view: They are not nearly as bad as their record. In the final series of the first half, at Texas, they won, 5-1, and twice lost, 4-3, in 10 and 13 innings. As long as Ron Gardenhire is the manager, the Twins will not be an easy club to play, regardless of circumstance.
They feature three-time AL batting champion C Joe Mauer (.326 average in 77 games) and two players with 19 homers: LF Josh Willingham and 3B Trevor Plouffe -- who has done so in just 229 at-bats. Imagine where the Twins would be without Willingham (.261 avg., .536 slg., 60 RBI). Or, imagine where the Indians would be with him. The Indians and Twins were on Willingham's short list as a free agent last winter; he opted for Minnesota because they guaranteed him a third year.
Pessimistic view: They have too many teams to pass and too many games to make up. They have a run differential of minus-87. 1B Justin Morneau, derailed by a concussion several years ago, is not the MVP-caliber player he once was (.246 average, 11 homers). The staff ERA is 4.86.
On Twitter: @dmansworldpd