Can the aging Phillies hold off the new-look Nationals and Marlins? Who will emerge from the star-depleted Central? Is there new Magic around the Dodgers?
Joe Rimkus Jr., Miami HeraldShortstop Jose Reyes is just one of the many new faces that will help the Miami Marlins christen their new downtown ballpark -- and potentially steal away the NL East from Philadelphia. CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Breaking down the National League division races with Plain Dealer beat writer Paul Hoynes.
NL EAST
Projected order of finish: 1. Phillies, 2. Nationals, 3. Marlins, 4. Braves, 5. Mets.
The skinny: The Phillies have won five straight NL East titles, but they're getting old and brittle. Ryan Howard is still recovering from a torn left Achilles tendon and second baseman Chase Utley sounds like the Phillies' version of Grady Sizemore. It's nice to see him on the field, it's just tough getting him there. ...
A couple of other burning health questions: Can the Marlins' Josh Johnson and the Mets' Johan Santana have comeback seasons? The latter probably wouldn't change the course of the season, but the former could do wonders for the Marlins, especially after they added lefty Mark Buehrle, closer Heath Bell and shortstop Jose Reyes through free agency, renamed the franchise, and move into a new ballpark. ...
The Braves pulled a Red-Sox like collapse in September, but heads didn't roll. They didn't fix the offense either, which means Jason Heyward better hit like he did in 2010, not 2011. ...
The Nationals signed Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126 million deal before the 2011 season. Werth (.232, 20 HRs, 58 RBI) fell on his face. If the Nationals are going to be as good as some people think, he needs to do better.
Top arms: If Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35), Cliff Lee (17-8, 2.40) and Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.79) don't give the Phillies the top three starters in the National League, they're close. Now they have Jonathan Papelbon (4-1, 2.94, 31 saves) closing. ... Washington closer Drew Storen had a breakout season last year, saving 43 games for a team that won 80 overall. The Nationals should be better this year with Gio Gonzalez (16-12, 3.12) added to the rotation and Stephen Strasburg back from Tommy John surgery. That could mean more save chances for Storen, who will open the season on the disabled list with a sore right elbow. ... Veteran Tim Hudson (16-10, 3.22) has revitalized his career with two solid seasons in Atlanta, but he needs help from rotation-mates Jair Jurrjens (13-6, 2.96), Tommy Hanson (11-7, 3.60), Brandon Beachy (7-3, 3.68) and Mike Minor (5-3, 4.14).
Top bats: NL batting champ Reyes (.337, 31 doubles, 19 triples, 39 steals, 101 runs) has moved from the Mets to Miami. ... Hunter Pence (.314, 22 HRs, 97 RBI) was a nice addition by the Phillies last year. ... Atlanta's Dan Uggla hit 36 homers, but he could use a few more points on the average (.233). Braves catcher Brian McCann (.270, 24, 71) needs to keep on keeping on. ... Michael Morse (.303, 31, 95) can help the Nationals contend. ... You can call him Mike Stanton or you can call him Giancarlo Stanton, either way he has big power (.262, 34, 87) and a big future for the Marlins. One more thing, is Miami's new third baseman Hanley Ramirez (.243, 10, 45) still in the big leagues?
Top gloves: The Phillies have a Gold Glove defender in third baseman Placido Polanco, who underwent sports hernia surgery during the off-season. ... Reyes takes his flashy shortstop play to Miami, where new manager and former shortstop Ozzie Guillen can offer some tips. ... Phillies center fielder Shane Victorino can go get the ball and throws well. ... Atlanta's Chipper Jones, if he can keep his body on the field, will be on display for his final season.
Top newcomer: Flip a coin between Buehrle and Papelbon. Buehrle probably switched leagues at just the right time, considering he's 33.
Top rookie: Everyone is waiting to see Washington outfielder Bryce Harper. He was injured in spring training, but there's still a chance he could help this year.
Crystal ball: Who are you taking in the best-of-three-falls pool, Guillen or new Marlins pitcher Carlos Zambrano? The odds favor Big Z, but Guillen just may talk him off the top rope.
Chris Carlson, Associated PressDid he or didn't he? Major League Baseball thought it knew for sure, but Ryan Braun won his appeal and will try to repeat an MVP season in Milwaukee without Prince Fielder hitting behind him. NL CENTRAL
Projected order of finish: 1. Reds, 2. Brewers, 3. Cardinals, 4. Cubs, 5. Pirates, 6. Astros.
The skinny: This is a damaged division. All eyes will be on NL MVP Ryan Braun to see if he can repeat last year's numbers (.332, 33 HRs, 111 RBI) after he beat a positive PED test on a technicality during the off-season. More importantly, he doesn't have Prince Fielder hitting behind him in Milwaukee's lineup. ...
The Cardinals lost Albert Pujols, manager Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan after their World Series victory in 2011. They added outfielder Carlos Beltran and rookie manager Mike Matheny, but there is still a big void to fill. Chris Carpenter, last year's postseason pitching hero and logger of an NL-high 2371/3 innings, is sidelined indefinitely with nerve damage in his right shoulder. ...
The Reds thought they were set at closer when they signed Ryan Madson to a one-year, $8.5 million deal. Madson injured his elbow in late March and is done for the season with Tommy John surgery. ...
The Cubs have a new manager in Dale Sveum and a new front office led by former Boston GM Theo Epstein. They are rebuilding and Cubs fans will need to be patient for yet another season. ...
The Astros could celebrate their last year in the NL with a second straight last-place finish. They lost 106 games last year. ...
Who knew the Pirates had that much money ($51.5 million for six years) to spend on one player (Andrew McCutchen)?
Top arms: Yovani Gallardo (17-10, 3.52) and Zach Greinke (16-6, 3.83) give the Brewers a nice 1-2 punch. ... The Reds acquired Mat Latos from the Padres and signed set-up man Sean Marshall (6-6, 2.26, five saves). Latos is coming off a bad year, but was a 14-game winner in 2010. Marshall could be their new closer following Madson's surgery. ... There are some good closers in the division with Milwaukee's John Axford (46 saves) and Pittsburgh's Joel Hanrahan (40). Axford's 46 saves were for first in the league. ... Houston's Wandy Rodriguez won 11 games last year, not easy with a team that bad. ... Former 20-game winner Adam Wainwright is back for the Cards after missing last season with right elbow surgery.
Top bats: Can Braun dominate the NL again? Last year he finished second in average, sixth in homers, fourth in RBI, second in runs, fifth in hits and second in total bases. One more question for the Brewers: Can Aramis Ramirez (.305, 26, 93) take Fielder's spot in the lineup and protect Braun? ... Brandon Phillips (.300, 18 HRs, 82 RBI), Joey Votto (.309, 29, 103) and Jay Bruce (.258, 32, 97) give the Reds plenty of thump. ... Revitalized Lance Berkman (.301, 31, 94) will be replacing Pujols at first. ... The much-criticized Alfonso Soriano (.244, 26, 88) is still the Cubs' only real run producer, although shortstop Starlin Castro led the NL in hits last year with 207. ... There's not much in Houston other than Carlos Lee (.275, 18, 94).
Top gloves: The right side of the Reds infield is solid with Gold Glovers in 1B Votto and 2B Phillips. Scott Rolen is as good as there is at third as long as he's healthy. ... St. Louis catcher Yadier Molina won his fourth Gold Glove last year. Jake Westbrook, Molina's batterymate, is a fine defender as well. ... McCutchen covers a lot of ground in center for the Pirates. ... Castro, the Cubs shortstop, is exciting as long as he remembers to face the hitter when his pitcher is pitching. He led the NL with 29 errors last year. ... Shortstop Rafael Furcal showed last year he still has some gas in the tank after being acquired by the Cardinals at midseason.
Top newcomer: Despite bunting a ball into his eye, A.J. Burnett should still help the Pirates at some point this year.
Top rookie: The Reds think shortstop Zack Cozart is ready to play in the big leagues.
Crystal ball: The Pirates streak of 19 straight losing seasons will finally come to an end. No, really, it comes to an end.
NL WEST
How strong is Arizona's Justin Upton? Just watch
Projected order of finish: 1. Diamondbacks, 2. Dodgers, 3. Rockies, 4. Giants, 5. Padres.
The skinny: Is this a great game or what? Former owner Frank McCourt puts the Dodgers and their fans through a seemingly never-ending nightmare and then gets to walk away chuckling after selling the team for $2 billion. Meanwhile the Dodgers helped their rotation with the addition of Aaron Harang (14-7, 3.64) and Chris Capuano (11-12, 4.55). ...
Catcher Buster Posey is back, which makes the Giants better, but don't forget that they finished 16th in the 16-team NL in runs scored last year. 2B Freddy Sanchez is expected to open the season on the disabled list with a bad shoulder. ...
Casey Blake didn't cut it at third base for the Rockies so they turned to Chris Nelson and Jordan Pacheco until Nolan Arenado is ready. ...
The Padres, who finished 15th in the NL in runs, traded for Carlos Quentin (.254, 24, 77) for some much needed power, but he had surgery on his right knee in March and won't be back until late April. ...
The Diamondbacks will start newcomer Jason Kubel (.273, 12, 58) in left, but shortstop Stephen Drew won't be ready to open the year on time as he recovers from a broken right ankle suffered last year.
Top arms: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers) and Ian Kennedy (Arizona) are each coming off 21-win seasons. Kershaw (2.28 ERA, 248 strikeouts, 233 1/3 innings) won the Cy Young. Kennedy (2.88, 198 strikeouts, 222 innings) went to the postseason. Kennedy has a running mate in Daniel Hudson (16-12, 3.49), something Kershaw needs. ... Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong won 13 games each for the Giants last year and none had an ERA above 3.21. That's why they need more offense in the City by the Bay. ... It will be interesting to see how Arizona's J.J. Putz follows up his 45-save season. ... What will Colorado's Jeremy Guthrie do now that he's out of Baltimore, where he lost 60 games in the past four years? ... The Padres are counting on Huston Street to replace Bell at closer.
Top bats: The conversation starts and ends with three hitters: LA's Matt Kemp (.324, 39 HRs, 126 RBI), Colorado's Troy Tulowitzki (.302, 30 HRs, 105 RBI) and Arizona's Justin Upton (.289, 31, 88). Kemp was a legitimate Triple Crown threat, finishing third in batting average and leading the NL in homers and RBI.
Top gloves: The Dodgers have this market cornered with 2011 Gold Glove winners in outfielders Andre Ethier and Kemp and Cy Young winner Kershaw. Arizona's Gerardo Parra won a Gold Glove in left field last year, but this year he'll be coming off the bench.
Top newcomer: There are a lot of new faces, but hanging your hat on Colorado's Michael Cuddyer (.284, 20 HRs, 70 RBI) is a wise bet. The versatile Cuddyer should have a big year at Coors Field.
Top rookie: Lefty Drew Pomeranz, well known by Indians fans, is coming off a solid spring and should open the season in the Rockies' rotation.
Crystal ball: The Dodgers, under new owners that include Magic Johnson, replace the ceremonial first pitch by fans with a jump ball.