What the Buckeyes' path to the top four might look like.
COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Ohio State was ranked No. 10 in the first College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday night, two spots below where the Buckeyes were ranked in the lastest Associated Press and Coaches polls.
That was no surprise. The playoff committee, which waits until later in the season to reveal the first of its six rankings, put No. 8 Washington State and No. 9 Kentucky ahead of the Buckeyes based on better resumes. That's typically how the committee, now in its fifth season, operates.
For four more Tuesdays, the 13-member committee (which includes Ohio State athletic Gene Smith in the second year of a three-year term) will reveal its top 25. The final rankings on Sunday, Dec. 2, the day after the final conference championship games, will decide the top four teams to take part in the playoff and the matchups for the other four playoff bowls.
The Buckeyes still have a playoff path, even with six one-loss teams ahead of them, as well as the three undefeated teams in No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Clemson and No. 4 Notre Dame.
Here's why.
1. No. 3 LSU hosts Alabama this week. Something has to give there.
2. Ohio State will play No. 5 Michigan to end the regular season. A win over the Wolverines, especially if Michigan doesn't lose again before that game, would provide a huge resume boost to Ohio State.
3. No. 6 Georgia, which plays at No. 9 Kentucky this weekend, could easily win out. But the Bulldogs would be underdogs in the SEC Championship if No. 1 Alabama gets there. Since Georgia already has a loss, a two-loss Georgia team would fall behind Ohio State if the Buckeyes win out.
4. No. 7 Oklahoma's best win is over No. 24 Iowa State and its only remaining regular season game against a ranked team is against No. 13 West Virginia. If the Sooners win out, they would then play in the Big 12 title game against, most likely, Texas or West Virginia. But there is no game out there for Oklahoma that would boost the Sooners as much as a Michigan win would boost the Buckeyes.
5. No. 8 Washington State has a win over No. 15 Utah but doesn't play another regular-season game against a team that is currently ranked. The Cougars winning out could be an issue for the Buckeyes, but again, there's no Michigan opportunity out there for them.
6. No. 9 Kentucky plays Georgia this week. So one team ahead of the Buckeyes must lose. And Kentucky, if it wins the SEC East, would face Alabama or LSU in a conference title game.
Losses are coming for teams ahead of Ohio State. The Buckeyes, who finish against Nebraska, at Michigan State, at Maryland and against Michigan, are no sure bet to finish the regular season 11-1, but if they do, they'll like their ranking.
The are two worst-case scenarios for a 12-1 Big Ten champion Ohio State.
One is undefeated Alabama losing in the SEC Championship to Georgia or Kentucky and the SEC suddenly deserving two playoff teams - the one-loss champ and the one-loss non-champ Crimson Tide.
The other is Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame locking down the top three spots and either Oklahoma or Washington State winning out and looking super impressive while doing so. In that case, three undefeated teams and a one-loss conference champ that has impressed may be impossible for the Buckeyes to pass.
Otherwise, if the Buckeyes get to 12-1 as the Big Ten champs, they're in. And if the second scenario happens, they might be in anyway.
So what should Ohio State fans root for? These are the three main things.
* Alabama to win the SEC to ensure no second SEC team makes the playoff.
* Notre Dame to lose, because I think a one-loss Notre Dame would finish behind a one-loss Ohio State.
* Michigan to keep winning so the Wolverines are ranked as high as possible when the Buckeyes play them. Right now, the committee likes the Wolverines.
"Michigan has a very strong resume," playoff committee chairman Rob Mullens said in a conference call Tuesday night after the rankings release. "Their only loss is to the No. 4 ranked team on the road in the first game of the year. Five wins against teams with a winning record, strong road wins, Michigan State, at Northwestern. Great on defense. Michigan is a very good team."
As always, the early rankings are only important for clues on how the committee is viewing a team. But, as you search for October and November hints, you must keep in mind that the committee can completely change its reasoning for the final December ranking that matters. It has happened before.
But based on what Mullens said, we can glean these things about the Buckeyes.
* The committee is into wins over teams with winning records. LSU has six of them, and that's one reason the Tigers are ranked ahead of Notre Dame, which has three of those wins.
Ohio State has one - against Penn State.
That's not great, but three of the four remaining OSU opponents, Michigan State, Maryland and Michigan, currently have winning records.
* TCU, at 3-5, has fallen apart, losing quarterback Shawn Robinson to injury and play-making receiver KaVontae Turpin to suspension. But Mullens said the committee is taking into account the fact that the TCU team the Buckeyes beat 40-28 in week three was more competitive than the TCU team that lost to Kansas last week.
"When they played TCU, that was a healthy TCU team on a neutral site in Texas. So that does factor in," Mullens said. "The committee is fully aware that TCU was at full strength and how they were playing when Ohio State went to Texas and played them. So that was a part of the discussion."
* The blowout loss at Iowa hurt Ohio State last year. How is the blowout loss at Purdue playing so far this year? Mullens implied it's part of what dragged them down to No. 10, instead of something more like No. 7 or No. 8.
"We look at a whole body of work, and when you look at Ohio State, they've had an offense that's carried them, quality road win against a CFP-ranked Penn State," Mullens said. "Obviously the loss at Purdue does weigh as a part of that, and I think that's why you see Ohio State at No. 10."
Asked exactly how a blowout loss factors in, Mullens emphasized that margin of victory isn't part of what they consider.
"But we do watch the games and understand how they play out," Mullens said, "so that is a part of the discussion."
Ohio State is in that discussion. When the Buckeyes reached the playoff in 2014, they were No. 16 in the initial ranking. When they reached the playoff in 2016, they were No. 6 in the first ranking.
Last year, they were No. 6 at this stage and wound up at No. 5, one spot out of the playoff.
The Buckeyes are in range. They just need to win and, for now, root for Michigan.
FULL TOP 25 IN THE FIRST COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF RANKING
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. LSU
4. Notre Dame
5. Michigan
6. Georgia
7. Oklahoma
8. Washington State
9. Kentucky
10. Ohio State
11. Florida
12. Central Florida
13. West Virginia
14. Penn State
15. Utah
16. Iowa
17. Texas
18. Mississippi State
19. Syracuse
20. Texas A&M
21. North Carolina State
22. Boston College
23. Fresno State
24. Iowa State
25. Virginia