How many games with the Cleveland Browns win this season? How can they beat Pittsburgh?
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Scribbles in my notebook as the Browns face Pittsburgh to open the season:
1. While I wrote a prediction column for this game -- Browns win, 20-17 -- I neglected to take a guess about how many games they'll win. I just can't get to the 7-9 range -- or better. At best, I see this as a 6-10 team. So I'll go with 6-10.
2. The reason the Browns have a chance to win at least six games is the major changes in the roster. More than 60 percent of the players are new. But that's also why it's hard for them to go from ZERO wins in 2017 to something like 8-8 in 2018. Continuity matters in the NFL. The Browns have so many new faces at so many key positions (including Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley), that could lead to some rocky performances early in the season.
3. Yet, I predicted the Browns to upset Pittsburgh. I wrote the column before hearing the awful weather forecast, although it's possible a Noah-type flood with the wind whipping off Lake Erie could help the orange helmets -- making it harder for Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to throw the ball.
4. Roethlisberger is now 36 years and entering his 15th NFL season. He is 21-2 vs. the Browns. I'd like to say it appears he's coming to the end of his career, but he seems to have at least a few good seasons left -- assuming he stays healthy.
5. One of the most fascinating decisions was to start Desmond Harrison at left guard. Most Browns fans know the basics of his story -- a big-time college recruit who ran into trouble at Texas. He didn't play football for two years and ended up at Division II West Georgia. He flunked a drug test at the NFL Combine, probably costing himself a chance to be drafted. He went from an undrafted free agent with the Browns to a starter.
6. The Browns want to use their power running game with Carlos Hyde and rookie Nick Chubb. That means they need good blocking from their guards and center. Veterans JC Tretter (center) and Kevin Zeitler (guard). That's part of the reason they decided to keep veteran Joel Bitonio at guard. They had been working Bitonio at left tackle.
7. Pittsburgh plays a 3-4 defense. The three linemen are Stephen Tuitt, Cameron Heyward and Javon Hargrave. The Browns don't say it, but their decision to start the undrafted Harrison over second-rounder Austin Corbett comes down to raw physical ability. If motivated and if he can keep his poise, Harrison is a better bet to play well against the Steelers than Corbett -- at least in the opener.
8. So watch how the Browns use the run, especially inside. Then watch the man being blocked by Harrison. The Browns may give the rookie some help blocking with veteran tight end Darren Fells, but they are counting on Harrison to hold his own against whatever linebacker he's facing.
9. We'll see how he plays, but Tyrod Taylor being a starter in Buffalo for the last three seasons should have him prepared for any weather he encounters in Cleveland. His strength is not turning the ball over. This will be a good test as wet footballs lead to interceptions and fumbles.
10. The Browns lost the 2017 home opener to Pittsburgh (21-18). They used these receivers: Kenny Britt, Corey Coleman, Kasen Williams and Ricardo Louis. None are in the NFL this season.
11. So the receiver group of Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Antonio Callaway and Josh Gordon has to be an upgrade. Higgins was cut before the 2017 opener, then later re-signed by the Browns. Callaway and Gordon are physically gifted, they just have to produce on and off the field.
12. This should be a good game for Taylor and Landry to connect on short and medium range passes to keep the offense on the field and pile up first downs. You can add Duke Johnson to that "keep possession of the ball" game plan through the air.
13. I worry about the special teams. They have been rocky in the last few seasons, and they were rocky during training camp. They allowed too many long returns. Zane Gonzalez has to prove he can be a consistent kicker in the wind at FirstEnergy Stadium. I don't feel good about this unit.