Is Deshaun Watson sending the Cleveland Browns a message by skipping the Senior Bowl?
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- I would be shocked if the Cleveland Browns took a quarterback with the No. 1 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.
And I'm starting to think they won't take a quarterback with the No. 12 pick.
I'd also bet the Browns will do some trading in the first round.
Which brings me to Deshaun Watson.
Profootball Talk published an article wondering if Deshaun Watson skipped the Senior Bowl to avoid being picked by the Browns.
It was speculation, not based on any hard facts.
But who knows?
It's a reasonable assumption Watson will be grabbed by someone in the first round. But maybe he drops to No. 32, like Teddy Bridgewater did in 2014. David Carr fell into the second round (No. 36) of that draft.
Picked ahead of them were Blake Bortles (No. 3) and Johnny Manziel (No. 22).
North Carolina's Mitch Trubisky, Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer and Watson are considered the top three quarterbacks in this draft.
None are like Jameis Winston (2015), Andrew Luck (2012) and Cam Newton (2011) -- top picks in their respective drafts who have become good NFL quarterbacks.
The L.A. Rams forced the issue last season, taking an unprepared Jared Goff with the first pick. Perhaps Goff will mature into a good quarterback, but he had a nightmare rookie season.
It's just a guess, but I imagine the Browns shopping for a young veteran quarterback.
I believe Tyrod Taylor is a real possibility if he is released by the Buffalo Bills. The 27-year-old has a complicated contract that is worth $31 million in 2017 ... you read that right, $31 million in 2017.
Taylor has a 14-14 record in two years as Buffalo's starter. He doesn't turn the ball over -- 37 TDs vs. 14 interceptions in the last two seasons.
There has been so much speculation about the Browns trading for New England Patriots backup Jimmy Garoppolo.
I wonder if the idea is right, the Browns bring in a quarterback from another team. But it's the wrong name. Rather than trade some of their draft picks for Garoppolo, they sign Taylor if he becomes a free agent.
The Browns have lots of salary cap room, and then they don't lose any picks in the first or second round by signing Taylor.
It's early and the Bills have until March 11 to decide if they want to pick up Taylor's option -- it includes a $15 million bonus and about $16 million in salary. Right now, Buffalo's backup is Ohio State product Cardale Jones, who is not believed to be NFL-ready.
Another Bills quarterback, E.J. Manuel, already is headed to free agency. I doubt the Browns will be interested in him.
ABOUT THE SENIOR BOWL
Philadelphia general manager Howie Roseman fell in football love with Carson Wentz at last year's Senior Bowl. That's what he told Cleveland.com's Mary Kay Cabot.
Roseman explained how seeing Wentz "throw live beyond field level ... see the ball come out of his hands ... see his size and leadership ability ... see his foot work and have a chance to meet with him..."
That convinced Roseman to work hard to trade up for the North Dakota State quarterback. He did just that, securing the No. 2 pick from the Browns.
This is not about a replay of the Wentz trade.
But it is to suggest Deshaun Watson missed an opportunity by skipping the Senior Bowl.
Not just with the Browns, but with other quarterback-hungry teams at the top of the draft. The first three selections belong to Cleveland, San Francisco and Chicago -- they all need quarterbacks.
Furthermore, there is no consensus about who is the best of the draft's top three quarterbacks: Trubisky, Kizer and Watson. All are projected to be picked in the first round. None are considered elite quarterback prospects by most draft experts.
Watson could have stood out because Trubisky and Kizer are not eligible for the Senior Bowl.
Watson played in a college zone-read system, rarely taking a snap under center. His Clemson coaches say he can do that, but he could have put it on display in the Senior Bowl.
Wentz ran a pro offense at North Dakota State, and he sparkled in workouts at the Senior Bowl.
The MVP of the 2016 Senior Bowl was Dak Prescott. He showed he could take some snaps under center after seldom doing so at Mississippi State. Most teams still discounted Prescott. He was a fourth-round pick by Dallas (the No. 8 quarterback selected).
And he was the top rookie quarterback in the NFL.
This is not about saying Watson was fearful of messing up his draft status following his strong performance in the national title game against Alabama. It's just to say he had a chance to impress pro scouts, and skipped it.
Watson can show in his Pro Day and the NFL Combine that he can handle snaps under center. But he wouldn't be doing it under game conditions with live tackling, as you'll see in the actual Senior Bowl game.
Yes, there is always a risk of injury. Perhaps that was behind Watson's decision. But playing in the game helped Wentz, and it should have helped Prescott if the scouts had been paying better attention.
ABOUT WATSON AND JORDAN
I understand why Clemson coach Dabo Swinney would spend a day at the Senior Bowl talking up Watson, even though Watson wasn't there.
Swinney won a national title with Watson, who had a 32-3 career record as a starter for the Tigers.
"If they pass Deshaun Watson, they're passing on Michael Jordan," Swinney told the media in Mobile when discussing what the Browns should do with the NFL's No. 1 pick.
Swinney called himself "an old funky college coach," but added: "He's 28-2 in the last two years. He put up 75 points against Alabama in two games. He played 15 games this year ... if they can't evaluate that, a week at the Senior Bowl is not going to change that."
Watson is 6-foot-2, 215 pounds and appears to have a slight build. He threw 41 TD passes, but had 17 interceptions. He had four games where he threw at least two interceptions.
He is a natural leader, no off-field problems. He has proven to be a clutch player. But will he be an impact NFL player? Is he worthy of the No. 1 pick in the draft? Is he the Michael Jordan of football?
I'm not ready to go that far, although I can't blame Swinney for the forceful sales job. He owes his quarterback that much and a lot more.
As for Swinney urging the Browns to take Watson, I wonder if that means Watson does want to be the No. 1 pick.
Of course, real questions linger about taking him No. 1, and I confess to having doubts that he is the best move for the Browns at the top of the draft.
ABOUT GREGG WILLIAMS
I know, you hear stuff like this every off-season when the Browns bring in a new coordinator.
This is the guy who is supposed to get the most out of some current players. And most of the time, players perform about as they have in the past. But I do think it will be different in some cases, at least with Williams running the defense.
In 2014, the Rams made Aaron Donald their first-round pick and the defensive tackle has become a star in the 4-3 base defense used by Williams.
Danny Shelton showed significant improvement in 2016 after struggling as a rookie in 2015. It's easy to picture the defensive tackle approaching Pro Bowl caliber playing for Williams. He has a history of developing lineman.
Donald was ranked as the NFL's top interior defensive linemen by Profootball Focus this season. Shelton was No. 17 out of the 127 they ranked.
I also believe he was shooting straight when he told 92.3 The Fan this about Jamie Collins: "He may be one of the best players I've had a chance to coach for a long time. I can't wait for a chance to coach him."
And Williams told Cleveland.com's Mary Kay Cabot: "(Collins) has some rare gifts athletically ... and concept-wise maybe I can help him be even better. Not just me, but we."
Williams also made an interesting comment about being good friends with Bus Cook, the agent for Collins. Williams plans to push the 27-year-old Collins to become a leader, something not natural to the Mississippi native. Collins was known as being very quiet, both with New England and the Browns.
But he can show leadership skills with his preparation and hustle on the field. Williams calls himself "the motor coach," and he plans to rev up the engine for Collins.
Last week, I documented how Williams improved most of the defenses that he took over -- usually within two years. I really do expect that to happen again, only this time with the Browns.
ABOUT THE BROWNS LINE
Profootballfocus has a much different view of the Browns offensive line, at least compared to the critics.
The analytics website rated the Browns No. 16 -- middle of the NFL pack -- in terms of offensive lines.
PFF wrote: "The Browns, who had rolled through six different passers in seven weeks to begin the season -- none of whom demonstrated the kind of playing style that actually makes things easier on his linemen. Despite that, Joe Thomas had another excellent season at LT, and the guard pairing of Joel Bitonio and John Greco also played well.
"The issue on this line was Cameron Erving. The former first-round pick, playing center in his second season ... surrendering 30 total QB pressures and being routinely abused as a run blocker. It's difficult to see much of a future for Erving at this point, and his position is one in need of an upgrade."
A few thoughts:
1. The Browns do like Austin Reiter as a center candidate next season. He played one game, then suffered a major knee injury and had ACL surgery.
2. I've heard some talk about playing John Greco at center. He did a decent job at the position. But Greco had major foot surgery. How well and how fast will he recover? That's a major issue.
3. The Browns believe Greco will bounce back from the foot surgery to be ready for the regular season. They do like Reiter. They thought Anthony Fabiano played reasonably well in the final game, his only start of the season.
4. Fabiano is an undrafted free agent from Harvard. He was on the practice squad for most of the season. I've also heard Gabe Ikard mentioned as a possibility. He has bounced around the NFL since 2014, being mostly on practice squads with Tennessee, Buffalo, Detroit and the Browns.
5. They have five picks in the first 65 of the 2017 draft, and I'd like to see them grab a center. There don't seem to be very many attractive free agent centers. Tampa Bay's Joe Hawley is a free agent, but he seems pretty average at best.
6. Rookie Shon Coleman played quite a bit in the final game at right tackle, and he showed some promise. Rookie Spencer Drango had some acceptable performances at guard, where he started nine games.
7. The Browns idea is to put together several young players -- Drango, Coleman, Reiter, Fabiabo and Ikard -- and see who emerges. Not all of them obviously will start, but odds are 1-or-2 will develop.
8. An example is Greco, who started only four games in his first four NFL season. But since 2012, he has been a starter (mostly at guard) with the Browns.