The Cleveland Browns will keep it close enough against the Philadelphia Eagles and QB Carson Wentz in Philadelphia: DMan's NFL picks ATS, Week 1.
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Cleveland Browns, New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks will be among the winners against the spread in NFL 2016 Week 1.
At least that is how I see it (for entertainment purposes only, of course).
The Browns are in Philadelphia; the Jets play host to the Bengals; and the Seahawks are at home against the Dolphins.
I am picking NFL ATS for the second straight year. In 2015, I went 122-127-7 in the regular season and 4-6-1 in the postseason. I managed to walk-off with a victory in the Super Bowl (Denver +5 1/2).
In this space, I decline to take the easy route when picking ATS. I pick all of the games, not a select few "hot ones'' each week. Leave that to a video. At the same time, I am realistic. I think batting .500 is an accomplishment, and I make no guarantees. (And don't yell at me too loudly when I have a bad week(s) because, after all, this is for entertainment purposes only.)
I have researched each team/matchup, but I plan on relying more on gut than anything else this season.
For continuity's sake, each week I will use the MGM Mirage lines from vegasinsider.com as of Wednesday afternoon. Games are listed as I came upon them, not by order of certainty. I do not adjust picks even if injuries occur and/or lines change between Wednesday afternoon and Sunday.
Here are the predictions for NFL Week 1, with winner (against spread, not always outright) listed first:
Thursday night
@ Denver (+3) over Carolina
Skinny: I don't trust the Broncos' quarterback (untested Trevor Siemian). But I am bullish on their defense, which is not fazed by, among other things, the zone read. Broncos will not lose in their house to the team they just beat in the Super Bowl. Broncos, 17-13.
Sunday
@ Atlanta (-3) over Tampa Bay
Skinny: Falcons are shaky, in general, and QB Matt Ryan can't be trusted week in and week out. But they at home against a team that has its issues, too. Falcons, 23-17.
@ Tennessee (+2) over Minnesota
Skinny: Vikings, sans injured QB Teddy Bridgewater, have too much uncertainty at the position. Regardless, if the game were being played in Minnesota, I would have picked the Vikings by a touchdown. Titans, 19-15.
Browns (+4) over @ Philadelphia
Skinny: I expected to get more points, but Vegas refused. The basis for this pick is simple: Browns players will not be allowed to return to Berea if Eagles QB Carson Wentz plays superbly. Eagles surround a so-so Wentz with enough to win but not cover. Oh, by the way: Browns QB Robert Griffin III solid. Eagles, 20-17.
@ N.Y. Jets (+2) over Cincinnati
Skinny: Jets are supremely confident, and rightly so. They are a team on the rise, with the grizzly Harvard QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick, at the helm. Jets, 20-16.
@ New Orleans (-1) over Oakland
Skinny: Count me among the many who believe in the Raiders -- but not on this day, in the Saints' dome, against QB Drew Brees. Saints, 27-23.
San Diego (+7) @ Kansas City
Skinny: Chiefs are on a different level than the Chargers, but the line is too big. Chargers score garbage-time TD to cover. Chiefs, 28-22.
@ Baltimore (-3) over Buffalo
Skinny: Vegas is disrespecting the Ravens, who will be better than (most) people outside of Maryland think. Ravens, 23-13.
@ Houston (-6) over Chicago
Skinny: This pick is not so much about the Texans being good as the Bears being bad. Texans, 26-10.
@ Jacksonville (+5 1/2) over Green Bay
Skinny: Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is fantastic, no question. He will engineer a victory on the road -- but it won't be easy. Packers, 28-24.
@ Seattle (-10 1/2) over Miami
Skinny: A friend of mine who is piped in to the NFL, when told of this pick, scoffed. He wondered why I doubted the Dolphins and QB Ryan Tannehill so much. When I asked if he had an hour, he changed the subject. Seahawks, 33-12.
N.Y. Giants (-1) over @ Dallas
Skinny: I like Cowboys substitute QB Dak Prescott. A lot. He will not be unnerved by the magnitude of the moment, and I expect him to perform well. It's just that Giants QB Eli Manning, who enjoys coming to Jerry's World, will be better. Giants, 24-21.
@ Indianapolis (-4) over Detroit
Skinny: This line smells; Colts should be favored by more. Colts and QB Andrew Luck out-score Detroit. Colts, 33-27.
New England (+6) over @ Arizona
Skinny: Almost every fiber of my being thinks the Cardinals cruise, largely because the Patriots' quarterback will be untested Jimmy Garoppolo in a hostile environment. The reason I am going the other way is, New England coach Bill Belichick will not allow his team to be handled in an opener on national TV. Cardinals, 23-19.
Monday night
Pittsburgh (-3) over @ Washington
Skinny: It pains me to pick the Steelers to win anything, but I am not naive in this case: Even with their daily suspensions, they are formidable. And Redskins QB Kirk Cousins is due for a market correction. Steelers, 26-20.
@ San Francisco (+2) over L.A. Rams
Skinny: 49ers have had this game circled on their calendar simply because there was a Sharpie in the vicinity and nothing else to do in the locker room. 49ers are bad -- but so are the Rams. 49ers, 20-13.