The Cleveland Indians entered the second half of the season in wild card contention but needing so many things to change.
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Talking to myself about the Indians as they prepare to start the second half of the season:
Question: Why can't you just write a normal story about the Indians rather than mumbling?
Answer: Because they do have me talking to myself. In fact, it's more like muttering. And that's probably true for many of their fans.
Q: They are only 5 1/2 games out of a wild card spot, right?
A: That's true. And there are six teams in front of them. Their record is a disappointing 42-46. This is not a team that should end up with a 77-85 record, and that's how the season projects. I never bought into the Sports Illustrated hype of the Tribe winning the World Series, but a losing record? I keep looking at how Minnesota is 49-40 and Houston is 49-42. I expected something like that from the Indians this year.
Q: So you are done with them?
A: Not at all. Not with their starting pitching. Not with Cody Allen as one of the best closers in baseball. Not with Terry Francona as manager, because his Tribe teams tend to play better in the second half.
Q: But were they this bad at the All-Star break?
A: In 2014, the Tribe was 47-47 at the All-Star break, 38-30 after. They finished with an 85-77 record. In 2013, they were 51-44 at the All-Star break and 41-26 after to finish at 92-70 and make the playoffs. So this season's 42-46 start is his worst in three years.
Q: Are you blaming Francona?
A: I can second guess some things, but he's a big-time manager with the track record to prove it. I hear the frustration in his voice, even as he is reluctant to criticize his players. He knows this is a better team.
Q: What does the front office think?
A: I talked to Chris Antonetti. The general manager also is frustrated. He talked about how "it comes down to us being more consistent, winning more games. We have had a few good streaks, but can't sustain it for a few weeks." Antonetti knows the Tribe ranks 12th in runs scored out of 15 American League teams. He is looking at ways to improve the offense, but he's not about to trade one of the starting pitchers (unless it's a shocking, monster, franchise-changing deal) to make that happen. The rotation is what can help the Indians climb back into contention.
Q: Do you really believe that?
A: With Cody Anderson as the fifth starter, the Tribe rotation has 32-27 record and a 3.50 ERA. That's the third lowest ERA among A.L. starting rotations. Fifth starters before Anderson had allowed 59 earned runs in 59 innings -- covering 13 starts. So Anderson (2-1, 0.89 ERA) has made a major impact. Other No. 5 starters were 3-8 with a 9.00 ERA.
Q: Why you drinking the Kool-Aid on the Tribe?
A: These guys can pitch. And they should pitch better in the second half, unless one of the starters has an injury. Strong starting pitching and a dominant closer (Allen is 19-of-20 in saves) gives you a chance to win most games.
Q: What happened to Corey Kluber?
A: Nothing, other than his sanity is being tested. He keeps his emotions under control, but what he's endured as a pitcher this season is outrageous. He is 4-10 with a 3.38 ERA. At the All-Star break a year ago, he was 9-6 with a 3.01 ERA. He's basically the same pitcher. Only the Indians never score for him.
Q: Never?
A: Close to never. He lost to Oakland, 2-0, on Sunday. He also opened the season with a 2-0 loss at Houston. Isn't this fun? He receives 2.3 runs of support, the lowest of any big league starter. If the Indians had just given him average run support, he'd probably be something like 10-4 and they would be in contention.
Q: A year ago, the Tribe had terrible defense. How about now?
A: Early in the season, defense was part of the problem. About a month ago, Antonetti promoted third baseman Giovanny Urshela and shortstop Francisco Lindor to take over the left side of the infield. Baseball Prospectus wrote that since Lindor arrived, the Indians have the best defensive infield efficiency in the A.L. Antonetti didn't want to deal with the rankings, but praised the two rookies for "stabilizing the infield ... and their enthusiasm has meant a lot. It's been fun to watch them play. They have brought a real spark."
Q: Are you worried about Urshela and Lindor?
A: We'll see if they hit. Urshela is batting .253, Lindor is at .223. Age is a factor. Lindor is 21. Urshela is 23. The pitchers will work them over. Neither has a full year of Class AAA experience. Anderson started only three games in Class AAA. The Tribe put them in the express lane to the Majors to try and revive the season. The farm system is helping.
Q: So what's the problem?
A: A few numbers jump out. They are 19-26 at home, second worst home record in the A.L. A year ago, they were 48-33 at home. They are 14-22 in the Central Division. They have no chance of a wild card spot unless they play at least .500 ball in their division. So that's the big picture: Start winning at home, and win games in the division.
Q: Why do you refuse to say that these guys just can't hit?
A: I was getting to that. They are 12th in runs scored. Offense is down all over baseball. The average player in the American League is hitting .253. But the Tribe offense is wasting so much good pitching.
Q: Are you ever going to name names?
A: Let's excuse some players from the discussion. Jason Kipnis (.323) is an All-Star. He also has been playing an above average second base. Ryan Raburn and David Murphy have been productive. Who would have imagined that? They have combined to bat .308. Lindor and Urshela just arrived. Nick Swisher is still hurt, so not much to say about him other than this -- who knows if the Indians will ever receive any real help from Swisher? He has two bad knees.
Q: I asked who is NOT doing the job?
A: Last week, I wrote about how Carlos Santana symbolizes the annoying aspects of the Indians this season. He's batting .221 (.736 OPS) with 10 homers and 40 RBI. He actually was 8-of-19 in the last week before the All-Star break. Is he finally getting hot? Santana drives me nuts because he's batting only .193 with runners in scoring position. He so slump prone. His defense at first base is worse than a year ago. How about this? He has no homers and seven RBI in 102 at bats from the right side of the plate.
Q: Who else?
A: Yan Gomes has only three walks compared to 44 strikeouts this season. He is batting .218 with 3 HR and 10 RBI. He missed six weeks early in the season with a knee injury. He is supposed to be healthy. But at bat, he looks nothing like the Yan Gomes who batted .278 (.785 OPS) with 21 HR and 74 RBI last season. Gomes is pressing. He is 3-of-31 with runners in scoring position.
Q: There has to be more than two holes in the lineup?
A: Michael Bourn is hitting .222. He batted .301 in May and showed some life. Since then, it's .174. I don't know how the Indians can keep playing him. Francona started using him only against right-handed pitchers, but it doesn't help. He's not hitting much off anyone, period. His defense has been just average in center.
Q: Should they play Michael Brantley in center?
A: A year ago, that was a good option. This season, Brantley has been battling a bad back. He's played with it, but his mobility is not close to his usual standards in the outfield. Brantley has found a way to bat .292 (.784 OPS) with 5 HR and 46 RBI. He is still Mr. Clutch (.358 with runners in scoring position). But since June 1, he's batting .278 with only 1 HR and 16 RBI and 7 doubles in 136 at bats. He's productive, but the back has hurt his power.
Q: If not Brantley and Bourn, who should play center?
A: The Indians are talking over several possibilities. Tyler Holt is batting .290 at Class AAA Columbus. He has little power, but does a decent job in center and when facing left-handed pitchers. James Ramsey (acquired in the Justin Masterson deal) is hitting only .239 (.706 OPS). He has some power (9 HR), but doesn't seem ready.
Q: What about Tyler Naquin?
A: Like Ramsey, he's batting exactly .239 at Columbus. The team's 2012 first round pick, Naquin had a great start for the year at Class AA Akron (.348, .887 OPS). Class AAA has been a challenge for Naquin. Ramsey, Naquin and Holt can all play center. But none have played well enough to really make the Indians promote them.
Q: Wasn't Jesus Augilar supposed to be a power hitting prospect?
A: He's batting .257 (.712 OPS) with 11 HR and 58 RBI at Columbus. It's .225 in the last 10 games. He's down from a year ago, when he was .314 hitter with 19 HR and 77 RBI for the Clippers.
Q: Are you still going to defend Brandon Moss?
A: I have been doing that for months. He does lead the team with 12 HR and 46 RBI. That is significant. He's hitting only .220 (.723 OPS) and strikes out nearly once in every three at bats. But that's not what bothers me the most.
Q: It's not?
A: A lefty hitter, Moss is batting only .190 (.662 OPS) vs. right-handers. He actually is better against lefties (.274, .831 OPS). He's hitting .185 with runners in scoring position. So the Indians have three key hitters -- Santana, Gomes and Moss -- batting under .195 with runners in scoring position. Moss also is hitting only .193 at home with 2 HR! He has 12 homers and a .245 average away from Progressive Field.
Q: Moss is streaky, right?
A: That's true. But since June 1, he's batting .196 with 6 HR and 18 RBI. He ended the break 0-of-15 with 10 strikeouts. It's been hard to watch lately.
Q: So there's no hope?
A: I doubt the Indians will pay the price in terms of big time prospects and/or starting pitchers to rent a bat for a year or two. I also wouldn't do that. Instead, there is a group of under-achieving hitters -- Santana, Moss, Gomes, Bourn and Swisher -- and they need at least two of them to deliver. Three would make the Tribe contenders in the second half. The three best candidates are Santana, Moss and Gomes. That's the only way that I see things changing for the Tribe.