The Browns would be better served using the Nos. 12 and 19 picks on other positions of needs, while still addressing quarterback.
BEREA, Ohio -- The Browns would be well positioned to draft Marcus Mariota if two of the NFL's most perennially underachievers had played to form a season ago.
In a race to the bottom of the standings the Browns and Bills are usually a good exacta bet. Instead, the Browns won seven games, the most since 2007. The Bills, who surrendered their 2015 first-round pick for the right to draft receiver Sammy Watkins, finished 9-7 on the strength of a terrific defense.
As the Browns head to the NFL Scouting Combine, six weeks ahead of the draft, they are armed with picks 12 and 19 in the first round. The club needs a franchise quarterback -- a statement established in 1999 -- and again has the ammunition to trade up and potentially take Florida State's Jameis Winston or Mariota.
Winston played in a pro-style offense with the Seminoles, and is the most NFL-ready quarterback in the draft. The Buccaneers or Titans likely will take him. That's probably fine with the Browns. His list of off-field transgressions would be a hard sell in Cleveland, where coach Mike Pettine doubled as a pre-school teacher placing Johnny Manziel, Justin Gilbert and Josh Gordon in timeout.
That leaves Mariota, who presents big college numbers and a bigger risk to a team that mortgages its future to move up and snatch him. It's believed the Browns have serious interest in such a bold maneuver.
Despite their obvious need they should not surrender their two first-round picks, and perhaps more, for a dual-threat quarterback who flourished in a spread system.
If the Browns held a top-5 pick along with another first rounder, then my willingness to gamble on another quarterback transitioning to a pro-style offense would be greater. But after whiffing on Brandon Weeden and enduring a tumultuous first season with Manziel the Browns must stop reaching for quarterbacks. Especially in a year when the class is weak.
They need a high-end receiver to replace the suspended Gordon, a run-stopping defensive lineman and perhaps a right tackle. They can address two deficiencies in the first round with little jockeying.
Absent an established quarterback, Pettine's philosophy of trying to win with defense and running the ball is a logical one. It produced a 7-9 record with Brian Hoyer, who faltered down the stretch. If they had not lost All-Pro center Alex Mack in Week 5, however, the Browns might have won nine games.
Why not keep fortifying the team's core to give the eventual franchise quarterback the best chance of succeeding? The Seahawks did it with Russell Wilson. The Ravens did it with Joe Flacco. And, fans sometimes forget the Steelers did it with Ben Roethlisbeger, who arrived in Pittsburgh two seasons after Pittsburgh beat the Browns in the playoffs with Vince Gill impersonator Tommy Maddox.
It's early and much can change between now and the draft, but here's a possible three-point scenario for the Browns' quarterback situation in 2015:
* re-sign Hoyer or trade for Nick Foles or Sam Bradford;
* draft a best-of-the-rest quarterback (Brett Hundley, Garrett Grayson, Bryce Petty, etc.) with a mid-round pick and the idea of developing him; and
* give Manziel at least another season provided he's more committed after emerging from rehab.
I wasn't in favor of the Browns drafting Manziel a year ago. I'm also not ready to cut him without affording him another opportunity.
Despite his made-for-TMZ lifestyle, the biggest red flag regarding Manziel was whether his game would translate to the NFL. Early returns aren't encouraging. That's also the concern with Mariota, who's spent his entire high school and college career in spread offenses.
One of the biggest challenges now facing NFL talent evaluators is projecting system/spread quarterbacks. They don't line up under center. They rarely need to go through progressions. They don't develop pocket awareness or rely heavily on their field vision because they're often making quick, one-read throws.
It doesn't mean they won't become good NFL quarterbacks, but there's more reprogramming involved. It's also troubling the best spread quarterbacks graduating to the league in recent years, Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III, are regressing as they have had to rely more on their arms.
The fact new quarterback coach Kevin O'Connell has been working with Mariota and Baylor's Petty the past month should provide the team with good insight. There's certainly plenty to like about Mariota, a quarterback who's guided the Ducks to back-to-back BCS bowl appearances, including the title game against the Buckeyes.
Mariotta possesses size, a strong arm, good character and the ability to run and process the game. If his former coach Chip Kelly traded up to acquire him, perhaps the Eagles would run a college-style offense suited to Mariota's strengths.
Senior Bowl executive director Phil Savage, a former Browns general manager, told cleveland.com whatever team drafted Manziel needed to make the same sacrifice. The Broncos did something similar with Tim Tebow in 2011 before acquiring Peyton Manning the following year.
Perhaps, that's the direction the NFL is ultimately headed with the influx of spread offenses. O'Connell is a former dual-threat quarterback who bounced around the league as a backup. He understands more than most coaches the environment awaiting Mariota.
NFL defenses are more complex and play the kind of press-man coverage the Heisman Trophy winner seldom saw at Oregon. He wasn't nearly as good throwing into tight windows as Winston. He also had 27 career fumbles with the Ducks.
In a Monday conference call, NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock took a dim view of the Browns moving up to draft either quarterback. Here's his assessment of Mariota:
"You don't have any worries off the field and all the individual components are there,'' Mayock said. "He's athletic, he's got a big arm, he's 6-4, 215 pounds, he's got great feet, he's going to run 4.5, 4.55, all of the individual components are available.
"However, can he put them together in a pro-style offense where he has to throw with anticipation, has to go through progressions?"
Sometimes, the best trades are the ones you don't make. Just ask the Redskins, who surrendered three first-round picks to the Rams for Griffin.
Working for a trigger-happy owner, Browns General Manager Ray Farmer and Pettine might feel pressured into making a play for a big-name prospect at the position of greatest need.
Where did that get them with Manziel?
Unless they are convinced Mariota can make a difference next season, the Browns must resist temptation. The alternatives at quarterback aren't particularly attractive or long term, but they allow the Browns to address other needs and build a better all-around team the way the Bengals have.
Are the Bengals, who have made four consecutive trips to the playoffs, any closer to a Super Bowl with Andy Dalton? Maybe not, then again their owner is not having to hold annual press conferences to deny dysfunction within the organization.