In the history of the league, there has never been such a moment, a 25-year-old two-time Most Valuable Player with such freedom and such choices of where to play.
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- With a coy smile on his face while sitting on a podium in a dank corner of Madison Square Garden in New York in November of 2008, LeBron James teased all NBA fans when he said "July 1, 2010, is going to be a big day."
The day is here.
James' 20-month-old forecast, thanks in large part to his own hedging in the time since, has proven to be quite true. For the first time since he entered the NBA in 2003, James is an unrestricted free agent. In the history of the league, there has never been such a moment, a 25-year-old two-time Most Valuable Player with such freedom and such choices of where to play.
Understandably this time has long been feared by Cavaliers fans and creates so many questions. The Plain Dealer is going to attempt to provide a few answers. Some are basic questions that have been asked many times before, and others are complex. Some have easy answers that favor the hometown Cavs, and some have hard answers that don't.
Q: How fast will James make the decision, could it be today?
A: Not likely. James has waited a long time for this moment and will likely give himself plenty of time to make a decision. He is expected to meet with teams over a two-day period and then consider his options. Also, the final salary cap numbers won't become official until next week and that could cause a delay. At some point, James will probably be under heavy pressure to make up his mind because much of the rest of the league will wait to see what he does before moving forward. But that will probably take at least 7-10 days.
Q: Can't the Cavs pay James more than any other team?
A: Yes. With the current rules, the Cavs can offer James about $30 million more over the next six years than any other team. However, if James chooses to take a shorter contract of 3-4 years, like he did in 2006, then the money difference is just a few million in that time. The biggest difference is the Cavs' ability to offer that sixth season guaranteed, which other teams cannot.
Q: Why wouldn't James take more guaranteed money and stay for sure?
A: Because he may want continued flexibility with his future. Often in the past decade top stars have been trapped in long contracts with bad teams and have had to force their way out with trades. James has tried to avoid that. It is possible, though, that he may want the longer contract this time because the league's owners are attempting to reduce the value and length of contracts when the union contract is up next year. James may want to get grandfathered into the current rules for as long as possible. If so, it favors the Cavs.
Q: The New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat can sign James and another star free agent like Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh. Why can't the Cavs as well?
A: With James on the roster, the Cavs are over the salary cap. Over the last two years they have made trades, specifically to acquire players such as Mo Williams and Antawn Jamison, and have re-signed others such as Anderson Varejao. They have done it to compete for titles. The Knicks, Bulls and Heat -- among other teams -- have done the opposite. They have traded good players and refused to sign free agents to clear that cap space while often struggling on the court.
Q: Shaquille O'Neal made $20 million last season and he's no longer on the Cavs books. Neither is Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who is also a free agent. So how do the Cavs not have salary cap room?
A: The NBA has what is called a "soft" salary cap, which means teams can go over it under certain conditions. In fact, nearly every team does. The Cavs did use these rules and went over the cap, way over in fact. So far over that even with losing all their free agents they are still over the cap. If James does not re-sign, then they would be under the cap but not as much as teams such as the Heat, Knicks and Bulls.
Q: So how can the Cavs hope to compete with these other teams if they can't sign another free agent with James?
A: There is the possibility of a sign-and-trade, in which one of the free agents would sign with their team and then be traded to the Cavs. This could happen if James first re-signs with the Cavs and attempts to recruit another free agent. That would create momentum for one of the other free agents to attempt to join the Cavs though such a sign-and-trade. The Cavs do have players that would be attractive to other teams in such a move, but those deals are complex. There is no guarantee that it would happen. James would be re-signing with some faith the Cavs could make it happen.
Q: So can the Cavs get Bosh this way?
A: Yes, it could happen. The Toronto Raptors, Bosh's current team, are known to like some of the pieces the Cavs have and a trade could be worked out that would deliver players plus salary cap relief to Toronto. If James re-signs, he will likely attempt to bring a player like Bosh to town.
Q: That is all the Cavs can offer, faith?
A: It may be easy to forget that the Cavs still have a very strong team. They won more regular-season games than any team over the last two years. With James on the roster they will again be a championship contender with options to improve through trade, and an owner in Dan Gilbert who is willing to spend. They have fallen short of the championship, but no team offering James a contract currently has a roster with as good of a resume as the Cavs have over the last several years.
Q: What about the reports that a team such as the Heat or Knicks could actually sign three top free agents? James, Wade and Bosh on a "superteam" in Miami?
A: It is possible, yes. But under the current salary rules and the cap space that the Heat have, it would require James and Bosh to perhaps leave $35 million or more on the table than they could make by signing elsewhere. If money weren't a factor and stars in their prime were willing to take way less than market value, then there would have been so-called "superteams" many times in the past. It has not happened before and would be unlikely to happen now. But it is possible.
Q: Couldn't James make all of that money up in endorsements in New York or Miami? Why wouldn't he just take less money to be with stars?
A: The amount of money James makes in endorsements is often overestimated. The market for athlete endorsements has been depressed over the last three or four years. James makes less money now in endorsements than he did as a rookie. But he still earns more than any other NBA player. His basketball salary is, by far, his largest revenue stream.
Q: Why hasn't James been more involved in helping the Cavs hire a coach? Is it because he's leaving?
A: When the season ended, James made the decision that he did not want to play a role in choosing the coach. For one, this perhaps would have put him under pressure to reveal a free-agent decision before it was time. Also, he did not want the stigma attached that he was in control of the hiring and firing of coaches. It does not mean he's leaving. He's met with the Cavs face-to-face several times since the end of the season and continues to be involved with the team.
Q: Why is James seeming to hold the Cavs hostage? Has this ever happened before?
A: Having a free agent of this level and so many teams with the salary cap space to sign him has never been seen before. But teams have had to sweat with great free agents in the past. After winning a title, Tim Duncan took recruiting visits to other cities as the San Antonio Spurs worried in 2000. Jason Kidd did the same thing with the Nets that year. In 2004, the Lakers were very nervous when Kobe Bryant met with the Bulls and Clippers as a free agent. All players re-signed with their teams because they could pay the most money.
Then there is the other side. The most well-known was in 1996 when O'Neal left the Orlando Magic to take a $100-million deal with the Los Angeles Lakers, even though the Magic could have paid him more. So it can go both ways.
James' decision, though, will likely be one for the history books.