I may be an idiot by predicting this, but the Cavaliers will win 46 games and easily make the playoffs.
Byron Scott's experience and high standards will keep the Cavaliers focused during a long season, and his ability to get the most out of the players will result in a playoff berth, says Terry Pluto.CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Talking to myself about the Cavaliers:
Question: Is the rumor about you losing your mind true?
Answer: What did I write this time?
Q: That prediction about the Cavaliers winning 46 games, are you nuts?
A: That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.
Q: But Sports Illustrated's Ian Thomsen polled several NBA executives and scouts, and their consensus was the Cavs would be the second-worst team in the Eastern Conference, just ahead of Toronto.
A: They should have asked me, I could have raised them up a few spots.
Q: ESPN's Chris Broussard polled some executives, and they had the Cavs between 32 and 36 wins. Your protege and co-author Brian Windhorst has them at 37 to 40 wins and 11th in the East. What about that?
A: Could happen, if a bunch of guys get hurt. But I insist they will win more games than they lose.
Q: Let's see, Yahoo Sports has them with 12 wins...
A: That's insane.
Q: And you have them at 46-36, right?
A: First of all, they will have at least a dozen wins by the end of 2010. When you say that the Cavs will win only 12 or even 25 games, that means LeBron James alone was worth 40 to 54 victories. One guy, that many wins?
Q: I know you love ESPN's John Hollinger's stats. He as them at 29-53.
A: And John predicted them to win 61 last season, so he was right. But this time, he's wrong.
Q: Then sell me on your 46-36 prediction.
A: In the East, there are four very good/terrific teams: Orlando, Boston, Miami and Chicago. That's four playoff spots. The remaining four spots will come from this group: Atlanta, Milwaukee, New Jersey, Detroit, Washington, Charlotte, the Knicks and Cavs. I like Atlanta, Milwaukee, the Knicks and Cavs in that group.
Q: But why 46 wins?
A: The Cavs have an established coach in Byron Scott who knows how he wants his guys to play -- and will demand they play his way. That puts the Cavs immediately in the top half of this league where too many coaches are viewed as faceless, powerless people in suits who deserve no attention from the players.
That's what you get in a league where the average coach survives three years and the average player salary is $4.5 million.
Q: So you think Scott makes that much of a difference?
A: On nights when some teams aren't interested, his players will pull some upsets. If the Cavs do have a game that they take a collective nap, he will make life miserable the next day in practice. They may not like him by the end of the season, but he will insist they respect him.
Q: What about the players?
A: Scoring could be a problem, especially early in the season as they adjust to a radically different Princeton motion offense -- and life without James bailing them out as the 24-second clock ticks down. But they will play solid defense. They will struggle against elite big men, but not that many teams have strong centers.
Q: Will they run, like Scott says?
A: They'll try. I like the 4-guard group of Mo Williams, Daniel Gibson, Ramon Sessions and Anthony Parker. Anderson Varejao should thrive in this system, and J.J. Hickson will average at least 15 points. So will Antawn Jamison. They have no small forward, so they'll often use three guards.
Q: James' supporters said the Cavs didn't have much talent.
A: Williams, Jamison and Varejao would start or at least play key roles for any team in the league. Hickson will soon join that group. I have liked Sessions ever since seeing him play for Nevada against the University of Akron. Parker and Gibson's outside shooting would be valuable to any team.
Q: Aren't you saying this because you're a homer and you want them to play well without LeBron?
A: This team certainly appeals to my underdog side, but I'm telling you -- they are an above average team. And have I ever been wrong?
Wait, don't answer that.