History doesn't favor Denny Hamlin as he enters the Chase as the top driver on NASCAR.
View full sizeDenny Hamlin has momentum entering the Chase today in New Hampshire.Denny Hamlin seemingly has all the momentum going into the start of NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup on Sunday at New Hampshire.
He is coming off a win at Richmond, giving him six victories, more than any other driver this season, and a 10-point lead over four-time defending champion Jimmie Johnson.
But history is not on Hamlin's side.
Since the Chase for the Sprint Cup format was introduced in 2004, only two drivers who led at the end of the regular season -- Tony Stewart in 2005 and Johnson in 2007 -- won the championship.
A year ago, Mark Martin entered the Chase as the top seed and held the lead for three weeks after winning at New Hampshire and finishing second at Dover. He ended up second to Johnson in the final standings.
In 2008, Kyle Busch was the top seed after winning eight races but was shut out during the Chase and finished a distant 10th.
So Hamlin knows he's not necessarily the favorite to dethrone Johnson.
"A lot of people bash this race team about can't finish this or can't finish that," Hamlin said, "but we've got the most wins, and hopefully that's going to carry us through 10 weeks of the Chase."
Hamlin, 29, has made the Chase in all five seasons that he's driven full-time for Joe Gibbs Racing, but he's never been a real threat to win a championship. He was third in 2006, when he was the series Rookie of the Year, but his best finish since was fifth last year when he began the Chase fourth, dropped as far as 11th and rallied by winning at his home track of Martinsville and then at Homestead.
"I've made a lot of these Chases and made a lot of mistakes through these Chases," Hamlin said. "Every year I feel like we learn something. I feel this year I'm as clear as I've ever been, and we're winning at tracks we don't usually win at.
"The Chase lays out for us pretty good. If we can carry this momentum from Richmond through Loudon and Dover, we feel like we can run with anyone over the second half of the Chase."
Last year, Hamlin got off to a good start in the Chase, finishing a strong second to Martin, and moved up to third in the Chase. He followed that with a 22nd at Dover and a fifth at Kansas. Then, after he won the pole at California, an accident caused him to finish 37th; followed by an engine failure and 42nd place at Charlotte. That dropped him to 11th and killed his chances at the Chase.
"The last five races of the Chase always seem to be really good for us, and we always gain points from those last five," Hamlin said. "But the problem is: We race ourselves right out of it for the first two or three.
"So for me, it's about damage control at the beginning and trying to get the best finishes we can and see where we end up. If we are within shouting distance with five to go, then I'm pretty confident we'll have a good shot at it."