Michigan is also in my top 10, ranked No. 8
Boise State and coach Chris Petersen top my first week AP ballotHello, this is Doug Lesmerises and I'm here to explain my top 25 AP ballot for the first week of the season. I feel the responsibility to do this because my ballot, especially early in the season, tends to differ quite a bit from many others, and I know from last year that some of you strongly disagree with my voting method and some of you like it.
This is not the only way to vote, it may not be the best way, but it's the way I try to go about it, applying consistent principles to my ballot and to every team each week, as much as I possibly can.
I think this is my fourth year with an AP vote, but after some thought I adopted this strategy last season, and some of you may know my thinking already. For those who don't, here's the general idea, especially as it applies to this first week ballot.
1. Don't pay much attention, if any, to my preseason ballot.
2. Don't pay much attention to a team's reputation, conference or even the name on the jersey. Judge each team as Team X, for the most part. This doesn't happen 100 percent of the time.
3. Make onfield results the most important factor in my voting, especially when it comes to head-to-head results. Voters who don't acknowledge head-to-head results make steam come out of my ears.
4. Don't be afraid of moving teams up and down a lot. No team owns its spot. So just because I had Alabama No. 1, Ohio State No. 2 and Boise State No. 3 on my preseason ballot doesn't give those teams any more right to the No. 1 spot than any other team. Of course, if that's how I thought of them before, and the game results don't change my opinion, teams may stay in a similar order.
5. This is a one-week snapshot. Teams build their resumes over time. Boise State happened to play its best resume game in Week One. So the Broncos are No. 1 for me right now. What if Ohio State beats Miami next week and Alabama beats Penn State, two quality wins for those teams? Either of them could easily be my new No. 1. Or maybe not. But in my thinking, Boise State's schedule probably will hurt the Broncos as the Virginia Tech win becomes a smaller piece of their resume each week. But all that is for later.
6. This is a reflection of the past, not a prediction for the future. I still think Ohio State and TCU will play for the national title and I don't have them No. 1 and No. 2. And I'm not sure I believe Michigan will win 10 games, but I'll move the Wolverines down later if they lose. I won't hold their low expectations against them after a quality win.
7. By the end of the season, I believe my ballot will be generally the same as many voters. I just may get there in a different way, and I feel good about trying to get there with on-field results driving my reasoning.
8. Your opinions are welcome and appreciated.
With that, here's my first ballot of the regular season, then another listing with an attempt to explain each team's placement
1. Boise State
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. TCU
5. Oregon
6. Nebraska
7. Wisconsin
8. Michigan
9. Texas
10. Iowa
11. Miami
12. Arkansas
13. Georgia
14. Virginia Tech
15. Utah
16. Stanford
17. Florida State
18. Penn State
19. LSU
20. Florida
21. Oklahoma
22. South Carolina
23. Kansas State
24. Georgia Tech
25. USC
() Team's rank on my preseason ballot
(3) 1. Boise State - Came back to beat Virginia Tech 33-30 in what was basically a road environment, undoubtedly the best win of week one in terms of defeating a quality opponent. Some think the game was filled with too many mistakes, that Alabama or Ohio State would have destroyed either team. Maybe. But sometimes good teams make each other look bad for stretches, and my whole point is to try to avoid hypotheticals as much as possible. That said, does anyone doubt that Boise State would have beaten San Jose State or Marshall by 40?
(1) 2. Alabama - Beat San Jose State. Given my voting criteria, the question should be why is Alabama this high? I would say TCU and Michigan, at least, beat substantially better opponents. But other than the Boise win, no other victory this week was over an opponent so good, it made me believe that win was better than Alabama cruising 48-3 in a dominating effort without Mark Ingram or Marcell Dareus. I found this week to be filled with similar blowouts of weaker opponents, but nothing else changed my belief about the team Alabama is. I may be sliding away from my principles a bit here, but this was a tough week.
(2) 3. Ohio State - Basically the same argument as Alabama. The Buckeyes dominated Marshall 45-7 in almost every way.
(6) 4. TCU - Considered for the No. 2 spot after a 30-21 win over an Oregon State team that is considered a darkhorse contender in the Pac-10 and legitimately one of the best 20 to 30 teams in the country. But the Horned Frogs struggled at times as Andy Dalton threw two interceptions, only breaking a 21-21 tie late in the third quarter. Quality win, but I just couldn't put them ahead of Alabama or Ohio State.
(12) 5. Oregon - Played a much, much weaker opponent in New Mexico, but sometimes scoring 59 points in the first half leaves an impression. Just ridiculous offense in what could be argued as the best performance of the week. In a week when eight teams on this list played FCS subdivision teams, waxing New Mexico can mean something.
(7) 6. Nebraska - Debuted a new quarterback and though coach Bo Pelini didn't like some of the defense late in a 49-10 over Western Kentucky, the Cornhuskers rolled. Truth be told, from No. 2 to No. 18 on my ballot [save for No. 4 TCU, No. 8 Michigan, No. 14 Virginia Tech and No. 15 Utah] we're talking about a good team beating up a bad team. And if anyone can truly differentiate teams in that context, help me out.
(8) 7. Wisconsin - At least the Badgers went on the road to beat UNLV 41-21.
(NR) 8. Michigan - And here are the Wolverines. I'll be curious to see where other voters put them. They were not in my preseason top 25. But they handled a Connecticut team that is generally viewed as one of the better teams in the Big East and was picked to win the conference by some. The Huskies were not a creampuff. Whether Michigan is for real or not isn't really my concern at the moment - the Wolverines played well Saturday against a better opponent than what most top 25 teams faced. Slotting them was difficult, but I'm comfortable with this spot.
(9) 9. Texas - Breaking in some new skill players, the Longhorns were solid but not great in a 34-17 win over Rice.
(10) 10. Iowa - Iowa, Miami, Arkansas and Georgia all handled themselves against weaker opposition. These rankings are basically coin flips for now.
(14) 11. Miami
(13) 12. Arkansas
(17) 13. Georgia
(11) 14. Virginia Tech - Another tough time finding a home for the only losing team on this ballot. I thought between No. 10 and No. 15 felt about right, and I felt like there was a bit of a dropoff among the winners after Georgia.
(25) 15. Utah - Beat Pitt 27-24 in overtime when the Panthers were ranked as a top 15 team, though I only had them No. 24, one spot ahead of No. 25 Utah. But preseason rankings don't matter. Quality win in a sloppy game, so I didn't put the Utes higher, but I could understand anyone who thinks they're a little low. In terms of beating decent opposition, whether it was pretty or not, I think they are absolutely in the top 20.
(15) 16. Stanford - Three more good wins over bad teams for the next three.
(18) 17. Florida State
(21) 18. Penn State
(22) 19. LSU - Very tough. Beat North Carolina 30-24 on a neutral field when the Tar Heels were ranked but stripped down by suspensions. The North Carolina team that took the field was definitely not a top 25 team, and then the Tigers nearly blew a big lead and lost in the final seconds. But North Carolina still had more talent on the field than any of the FCS schools these other teams beat. And LSU did manage to win, so ... Where to put the Tigers? I had them higher and lower before landing here, but I'm not convinced this is the right place.
(5) 20. Florida - Consider this a sweeping evaluation of both Florida and Oklahoma, two teams in my preseason top five that really struggled. Florida beat Miami (OH) 34-12 and Oklahoma beat Utah State 31-24. Here's what I'm not a big fan of - hey, that highly ranked team didn't look very good against a lesser opponent. Let's not move them down in the rankings at all. Bottom line - with a clean slate, did either of these teams have better than the 20th or 21st best win in the country this week? Beat quality teams down the road, like Oklahoma has a chance to do with Florida State this week, and both these teams could return to the top five in a hurry. But based ONLY on the first week of the season, it's hard to see either of these teams in the top 10.
(4) 21. Oklahoma
(NR) 22. South Carolina - Liked the 41-13 win over Southern Miss, a decent Conference USA team. Actually had the Gamecocks higher in earlier versions of my ballot.
(NR) 23. Kansas State - Same with Kansas State, which beat UCLA, a mid-level Pac-10 team, at home 31-22. I'm a sucker for beating opponents you don't have to pay to play at your stadium. I don't think UCLA is great, but I thought the win was worthy of this placement.
(NR) 24. Georgia Tech - Another school with a win over an FCS team, beating South Carolina State 41-10. Georgia Tech was in the overall AP preseason top 25, but the Yellow Jackets weren't on my preseason ballot
(16) 25. USC - Beat Hawaii 49-36 with some shaky defense. Just grabbed this spot ahead of West Virginia.
I'll be less of a blowhard next week.