"There's no big clear-cut favorite," said Heisman voter Chris Huston, who created the website HeismanPundit.com, which is dedicated to analyzing the Heisman race. "Based on all the things Pryor has going for him, I think it gives him the best chance going into the season. If all the top guys have good years, then he wins."
Terrelle Pryor's big showing in the Rose Bowl win over Oregon put him in the front pack of Heisman Trophy contenders going into 2010.COLUMBUS, Ohio — The Troy Plan worked. For Ohio State fans aching for Heisman Trophy No. 8, the concern shouldn't be about how Jim Tressel deploys Terrelle Pryor in the offense this season. Given the momentum he gained from his MVP performance in the Rose Bowl, his school and his name recognition, all Pryor may need to do is what Troy Smith did four years ago -- win a lot, create a few highlights and smile for the cameras.
"There's no big clear-cut favorite," said Heisman voter Chris Huston, who created the website HeismanPundit.com, which is dedicated to analyzing the Heisman race. "Based on all the things Pryor has going for him, I think it gives him the best chance going into the season. If all the top guys have good years, then he wins."
The only problem is if the Troy Plan has changed. Four years ago, Smith ranked 38th in the nation in passing yards and seventh in passer rating and passing touchdowns, yet he won the Heisman by the second-largest margin in history. He was more than numbers. But that was before the Big Ten's perception plunge, which started with Ohio State's post-Heisman loss to Florida in the national title game.
"I would say one reason Pryor might not have as good a chance as some people think is there is a natural anti-Big Ten bias," said RJ Bell, an Ohio State grad and the founder of the betting website Pregame.com.
The Troy Plan, in these four steps, might be enough to overcome that.
Step 1: Create the preseason hype
Like Smith did (19-of-28 passing, 408 total yards, two touchdowns) with his MVP dissection of Notre Dame in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl, Pryor (23-of-37 passing, 338 total yards, two touchdowns) is coming off a great bowl game. That's an edge for any Heisman campaign, though last year's Heisman winner, Alabama running back Mark Ingram, is coming off his own MVP performance in the BCS National Championship.
"He has name recognition, and that's always a big advantage," Bell said. "From the first game on, people who aren't even Ohio State fans are going to be saying, "How did Pryor do?"
One odd Heisman reality in Pryor's favor, when compared to Ingram, is that it's always better for a candidate to have his hype arrow pointing up. Pryor is still a package of potential, while Ingram will spend the whole season trying to live up to himself -- ask Tim Tebow how that worked out.
Phil Steele, publisher of respected preseason college football magazines and a Heisman voter, has seen what he calls that "bizarre" reasoning play out in voting for a lot of honors. He's predicting Pryor as the Heisman winner.
Step 2: Contend for the national title
While Bell has Pryor as his second choice in his Heisman odds, with Ingram at 4 to 1 and Pryor at 5 to 1, few other preseason contenders are from big-name title favorites. Quarterback Ryan Mallett's Arkansas team is picked to finish second in the SEC West, Houston quarterback Case Keenum has huge numbers is a small conference and Washington quarterback Jake Locker and Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, two NFL Draft darlings, saw their teams go a combined 13-12 last season.
View full sizeAlabama running back Mark Ingram (22) should be a top contender to win the Heisman this season."None of them play for Ohio State," Huston said. "No one is going to care if Ryan Mallet or [Boise State quarterback] Kellen Moore have better numbers if they're not on as good a team."
Three straight sophomores have won the Heisman, so it's always possible for young dark horses to emerge on great teams. But winning is almost a must. Six of the past seven Heisman winners, including Smith leading 12-0 and No. 1 Ohio State to the title game, have played in the BCS National Championship.
"If you're a quarterback for an undefeated team, like I think Ohio State can be," Steele said, "you're going to be there in the Heisman race."
Step 3: Create highlights
When Smith escaped a sack, spun away and threw the ball 60 yards in the air for a touchdown against Penn State in the fourth week of the '06 season, his Heisman reel had its signature play, among several wow moments.
Smith only ran for 204 yards that season, though, and it's safe to assume Pryor will run more, breaking enough tackles with enough stiff-arms to create more highlights on the run. He'll need a couple memorable throws, too, but Pryor should never run short of highlights.
"When people sit down to watch ESPN late Saturday night, we're going to be saying 'Wow, did you see that?' every week," Steele said.
Almost as important, though, is avoiding the lowlights. Smith threw just six interceptions in 2006, and if Pryor has even one game like his two-pick loss against Purdue last year, he could short-circuit his bid. Ask Texas quarterback Colt McCoy -- who made one bad decision in the Big 12 title game last season, nearly allowing the clock to run out in the final seconds -- how one lowlight can ruin Heisman hopes.
Step 4: Turn on the charm
After hours of interviews at the Big Ten meetings in 2006, a worn-down Smith said he knew his public face affected his Heisman chances.
"I think how you handle yourself in interviews and all that helps you tremendously," Smith said then.
View full sizePenn State running back Evan Royster is important to the Nittany Lions' rushing game, but he's a long shot for the Heisman.Pryor won't be at the Big Ten meetings, just as junior Heisman candidate Beanie Wells didn't go in 2008. Tressel prefers to send seniors. But it will be interesting to see how Ohio State handles Pryor, whose most notable quotes to this point in his career related to his Michael Vick eye-black patches early last season.
"I don't know that much about Terrelle Pryor," Huston said. "I'd like to know more about him as a human being."
In 2006, Ohio State created a Heisman page for Smith on its website and set up regular conference calls for Smith to speak with national reporters. Wells did a few extra interviews before his role as the '08 Heisman favorite ended with an injury in the season opener.
While Pryor handled himself well at Rose Bowl interviews last season, he's not headed on a media tour like Locker, who went on an East Coast spin a month ago, including a 14-interview day at ESPN.
"We believe that as impressive as Jake is on the field, he's even more so in person," Washington spokesman Jeff Bechtold said. "He's a very personable, smart, down-to-earth guy, and meeting him in person also impresses you in terms of his physical stature. He's a big man."
Smith wasn't that big, but he was everything else. He was also a trailblazer, the first true Big Ten quarterback to win the Heisman. All Pryor has to do is follow his lead.