WFNY's TD and Jacob Rosen discuss the trend and potential mirage that has been the 2011 Cleveland Indians.
AP Photo/Chris CarlsonASDRUBLAST! Asdrubal Cabrera has been a big factor in the Tribe's early success, but can they keep it up?
With the Indians seemingly the hottest topic on the Cleveland sports scene and varying opinions on how this 8-3 start is viewed, WFNY wunderkind Jacob Rosen and I had a little back and forth - kind of a good cop/bad cop kind of thing. While we both love what the future looks like for the Wahoos, we tend to have some different views on the present. Do enjoy.
TD: So Jacob, the Tribe is off to a torrid start that nobody saw coming. The starting pitchers have been borderline spectacular. Can you imagine if this is the REAL Justin Masterson at the top of the rotation?
Jacob: Justin Masterson with a career 15-24 record and 4.44 ERA as a starter? I'm not sold yet. Two quality starts sure are awesome, and the guy is only 26 years old, but I'm just not certain he's cut out to do this for a full season. We've continuously seen bits and pieces of his success either as a reliever or in short spurts as an innings eater, and I'm sure he'll cool down at least somewhat by late May.
I think he's due for somewhere close to a 4.00 ERA or something this season which would be much better than expected and especially improved over his 4.63 ERA from 2009 to 2010, but we shall see.
TD: Let's not forget the close to his 2010 season. Don't forget his 3.84 ERA after the break and his 18:2 K-to-walk ratio in September. I think he is starting to get it. Remember, he was once one of the Red Sox top pitching prospects behind Jon Lester.
I said before the season that the three key guys that had to take their games to the next level were Masterson, Carlos Carrasco, and Matt LaPorta. So far, so good, but it's still early.
Jacob: That's absolutely true. Two of the best things scouts would say that are on Masterson's side right now are his size and his age. He is a 6-foot-6-inch behemoth and - as I mentioned above - he just turned 26 years old in March.
As you said, Carrasco and Fausto Carmona are the only two pitchers to even struggle moderately in a start thus far this season. The team's 3.77 ERA for the starting pitchers is way down from 4.53 and 5.30 over the previous two seasons, respectively. Will it last all year? Definitely not, and it's only a matter of time before the regression to the mean finally hits.
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TD: Carrasco will go through ups and downs - it's his first full season in the bigs so I expect that. But who's to say he can't win 13-15 games? Everyone forgets he was Kyle Drabek before Kyle Drabek became "the man" in Philly's system.
What about this pen, Jacob? Raffy Perez, Tony Sipp, and Chris Perez haven't been touched heading into Tuesday night's game. Vinnie Pestano looks like a keeper out there as well. This is shades of the 2005 pen, this time with a power closer.
Jacob: That's very true, TD. Sipp and the Perez's have all had previously productive years in the bigs - 2007 to 2008 for Rafael Perez, 2009 for Sipp and 2010 for Chris Perez - while Pestano has certainly proven his worth recently up in Cleveland.
And remember, the Indians bullpen quietly had a 3.83 ERA last season. The upper half of the minors is stacked with even more relievers, so I suppose this is a bright spot going forward. Of course though, those four will eventually hit some at least rough patches when the going gets a little tougher.
TD: That's the thing. While it's a young group, the three key guys all have had success at this level. It's not like Pestano has to pitch the eighth as a rookie. The best part is it looks like these guys have defined their own roles within the first 10 games. They have made it easy for Manny Acta.
Speaking of the manager, has anyone pulled better strings than Acta has thus far? Every move he has made seems to have worked. I love that he is already managing to win no matter the situation. Like when he called for Raffy Perez in the 5th inning against Boston with two on and two out in a one run game. It worked, and when he was asked about it, he said he felt that was the key point in the game and you can't save your bullets in that situation.
Jacob: Actaball has been a delight, and I'm sure if any few Tribe fans can agree on that, it'd be you, Jon, DP and me. Acta is a numbers guy through and through, and we knew that from the beginning. Now that we've actually got a productive product out there on the field, everything's starting to cool and Cleveland fans are starting to learn just exactly how valuable it can be to have a sabermetrics-type guy out there as a manager.
But realistically, is this a team that will maintain this level of play for the whole year? Are we even looking at anywhere more than 80 wins? I'm not so certain there. The 2002 Indians began with an 11-1 tear and faded to a 74-88 record. I think that's about what we'll see by the end of this year, give or take about five wins, and hopefully certainly no managerial change.
TD: It's nice to watch a National League manager take advantage of the American League, station to station type counterparts. How about the off-guard Adam Everett steal in the 8th inning of a 0-0 game with Boston last Thursday? What about the subsequent squeeze play that won the game? You think "The Grinder" would have ever even considered such bold moves? Acta owned both Terry Francona and Eric Wedge last week.
I admit, I've got stars in my eyes with this start. They are doing it without Grady Sizemore and slumps from Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana. But I've got to temper the enthusiasm. Everything has gone right the first week and a half. Things are bound to change. Injuries happen. But I want to enjoy this while I can. I just hope the fans show up this weekend to support this club. They deserve it the way they have played.
Reality? I think they end up right around .500, but why can't they contend in this division?
Jacob: Acta's been about as valuable as a manager can be in baseball, and you brought up a strong point there about his background in the NL.
And that's right about tempering the enthusiasm, as this is almost too good of a story to be true for that long. Who knows how long the pitching can hold up, let alone major contributing veterans Orlando Cabrera and Travis Hafner? The Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers deservedly remain the main forces in the division, and I think a close second place finish with no more than 80 wins seems about the best case possible.
TD: And what about Hafner? He has looked like "Pronk" again thus far. Is there any way he is "back?" If he is, it changes the entire dynamic of this lineup. I for one can't see that happening, but a man can dream. The Orlando Cabrera signing has been nothing short of brilliant. Think he changes the team just a little bit? He's playing second like he's been there his whole career and has been protecting Hafner better than we could have imagined in the six hole. Jayson Nix, he certainly isn't and he'd be you 2B right now.
Jacob: But yet again, it's way too early in the season. One of the most basic principles of sports statistics is to consider the sample size, and that's no more prevalent than in trying to make sense of baseball numbers in April. Sometime, these things happen, and it doesn't always have to make sense, let alone relate to future performances. Hafner and Cabrera are on the back end of their decent careers, and I'm not sure how they could get any better than they've been so far.
So considering a regression to the mean is the key here. Just think about it, the Indians have a +.181 net OPS this season - the team has a .792 mark against just a .611 performance for opponents. That's unfathomable, and also clearly unsustainable.
TD: You and your stats. I'm an eye test guy. Hafner just looks much more comfortable at the plate, and healthier. Must be the hair growth. Cabrera is the perfect place holder for Jason Kipnis. This is the umpteenth year he has signed a one year deal as a stop gap guy. Everywhere he goes he wins and plays well.
OK, so how do you think this will all play out? Will the Indians hang around all year? Is this start a mirage?
Jacob: An 8-3 start certainly means the Indians will be in position to at least hang around near the top of the AL Central through at least part of May. Where they go from there, I'm not quite sure, as I'm positive this team has a few more corresponding 2-8 stretches on the horizon by the time October rolls around. Promoting prospects like Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Alex White and potentially others could help, but also could bother some of this rhythm Acta's got with the crew right now.
Any way you slice it I'm just not buying the longevity of this team's success. I'm sticking with somewhere between 72-80 wins by the end of the year, and somewhere between a fourth to second place finish in the division. But assuming things continue to progress and develop throughout the organization in 2011, the Indians could very well be in line to contend early than I expected, and that means 2012.
TD: The three guys you mentioned could come up and be difference makers at some point later in the season, ala Franklyn Gutierrez, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jensen Lewis in 2007. Let's us not forget that the infamous Jason Michaels/David Dellucci platoon, Trot Nixon, and Josh Barfield were regulars until the kids (and Kenny Lofton) took the ABs. Lewis was the bridge to Raffy Left and Raffy Right.
I am truly looking through my Wahoo red, white, and blue glasses right now, but I just cannot help but be excited by this team's hot start.
Beats the Eric Wedge Annual April swoon, doesn't it?
Jacob: You're right, and 2007 was a huge year in the status of this franchise. Will 2011 repeat that season in terms of what it means for the future? I hope not to a certain extent, because we can't get away from the fact that on paper, this team really is built to start competing in 2013. The big-time prospects need to get their feet wet and then some in order to be key cogs on a playoff contender, so I just want to make sure fans and the front office don't get too carried away because of this year's early success. Stay calm Tribe faithful, success will come, but maybe not just this soon.