It's too early to cast final judgment on the Indians' trades of CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez, but this season will offer the most compelling evidence to date.
Joshua Gunter / The Plain DealerA couple of big-league scouts agree that Matt LaPorta has the ability to produce plenty of runs for the Indians -- and he'll get the chance to do so in 2011. CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Indians' front office was right about one thing when it started to remake the team in 2008. There was no way they could afford to keep CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez.
It took 2 1/2 seasons for the money to be counted, but the calculators have finally been put to rest. Sabathia (seven years, $161 million), Lee (five years, $120 million) and Martinez (four years, $50 million) signed for a combined 16 years and $331 million of free-agent contracts.
The Yankees (Sabathia), Phillies (Lee) and Tigers (Martinez) picked up the tab, which tells you one thing -- the Indians certainly know talent when they're sending it out of town. The question yet to be answered is, what did they get in return?
In trading Sabathia to Milwaukee, Lee and Ben Francisco to Philadelphia, and Martinez to Boston, the Indians received 11 players. Ten are still in the organization and six should be on the Opening Day roster on April 1 at Progressive Field.
There's a good chance that first baseman Matt LaPorta, outfielder Michael Brantley and infielder Jason Donald will be in the starting lineup. Justin Masterson and Carlos Carrasco are expected to be in the starting rotation and Lou Marson should be the backup catcher.
Time for Indians’ prospects to produce?
Here’s a look at what the players involved in the Indians’ three big deals since 2008 involving CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez have done since the trades took place.
- TRADE 1: July 7, 2008, CC Sabathia traded to Milwaukee for 1B/OF Matt LaPorta, RHP Rob Bryson and LHP Zach Jackson. Oct. 3, 2008 Indians acquire OF Michael Brantley to complete trade.
- Sabathia, 30: 51-17 in the regular season since the trade; 11-2 in 2008; 19-8 in 2009 and 21-7 in 2010. He’s 5-2 in the postseason with one World Series championship in 2009. Signed a seven-year, $161 million deal with the Yankees as a free agent after the 2008 season.
- LaPorta, 26: .232 (129-for-557) with 19 homers, 28 doubles, 62 RBI and a .694 OPS in 162 games; .254 (46-for-181) with 13 doubles, seven homers and 21 RBI in 52 games in 2009; .221 (83-for-376) with 15 doubles, 12 homers and 41 RBI in 110 games in 2010.
- Brantley, 23: .264 (108-for-409) with 13 doubles, three triples, three homers, 33 RBI and a .645 OPS in 100 big-league games; .313 (35-for-112), with four doubles and 11 RBI in 28 games in 2009; .246 (73-for-297) with nine doubles, three triples, three homers and 22 RBI in 72 games in 2010.
- Bryson, 23: 7-3 with a 2.88 ERA in 43 games, but hasn’t pitched above Class AA Akron. Missed most of the 2009 season with right shoulder surgery.
- Jackson, 27: 2-3 with a 6.11 ERA in 12 games; 2-3, 5.60 in 2008; 0-0, 9.35 ERA in 2009. He hasn’t been in the big leagues since 2009. The Indians traded him to Toronto on Jan. 9, 2010 and he became a free agent on Nov. 6. Texas signed him to a minor-league deal Dec. 23.
- TRADE 2: July 29, 2009, LHP Cliff Lee and OF Ben Francisco traded to Philadelphia for RHP Carlos Carrasco, INF Jason Donald, C Lou Marson and RHP Jason Knapp.
- Lee, 32: 19-13 since the trade; 7-4 in 2009 with the Phillies; 8-3 in 2010 with Seattle and 4-6 in 2010 with Texas. He’s 7-2 in the postseason, reaching the World Series with the Phillies in 2009 and with Texas in 2010. After last season, he signed a five-year, $120 million contract with the Phillies.
- Francisco, 29: .272 (75-for-276) with 22 doubles, 11 homers, 41 RBI and a .794 OPS in 125 games; .278 (27-for-97) with nine doubles, five homers and 13 RBI in 37 games in 2009; .268 (48-for-179) with 13 doubles, six homers and 28 RBI in 88 games.
- Carrasco, 23: 2-6 with a 5.51 ERA in 12 big-league games; 0-4, 8.87 ERA in 2009 and 2-2 with a 3.65 ERA in 2010.
- Donald, 26: .253 (75-for-298) with 19 doubles, three triples, four homers, 24 RBI and a .690 OPS in 88 big-league games.
- Marson, 24: .203 (62-for-306) with 21 doubles, three homers, 26 RBI and a .585 OPS; .250 (11-for-44) with six doubles, four RBI and a .733 OPS in 2009; .195 (51-for-262) with 15 doubles, three homers, 22 RBI and a .560 OPS in 2010.
- Knapp, 20: 1-2 with a 3.63 ERA in 13 games; 0-0, 5.40 in 2009 and 1-2, 2.86 ERA in 2010. Knapp, who hasn’t pitched higher than Class A Lake County, missed most of the 2010 season while recovering from right shoulder surgery. In 13 starts, he has 59 strikeouts in 39 2/3 innings.
- TRADE 3: July 31, 2009, C Victor Martinez was traded to Boston for RHP Justin Masterson, LHP Nick Hagadone and RHP Bryan Price.
- Martinez, 32: .313 (220-for-704) with 44 doubles, 28 homers, 120 RBI and a .865 OPS in 183 games; .336 (71-for-211) with 12 doubles, eight homers, 41 RBI and a .912 OPS in 2009; .302 (149-for-493) with 32 doubles, 20 homers, 79 RBI and a .844 OPS in 2010. He hit .182 (2-for-11) in the 2009 postseason. Martinez signed a four-year, $50 million deal with Detroit after last season.
- Masterson, 25: 7-20 with a 4.68 ERA in 45 games; 1-7, 4.55 in 2009 and 6-13 with a 4.70 ERA in 2010.
- Hagadone, 25: 3-6 with a 3.49 ERA, but hasn’t pitched higher than Class AA Akron. He was 0-1 with a 3.19 ERA in 2009 and 3-5 with one save and a 3.57 ERA in 2010. He pitched out of the pen at Akron last year, but will go to camp this spring with a chance to start.
- Price, 24: 8-7 with one save and a 3.83 ERA since the trade, but hasn’t pitched above Class AA Akron. He went 2-4 with a 4.95 ERA at Class A Kinston in 2009 and 6-3 with one save and a 3.25 ERA last year at Akron. He became a reliever in 2010.
— Paul Hoynes
"This is a big year for a number of those players to take a step forward in a significant way," said GM Chris Antonetti.
The idea behind these trades was to remake the Indians with talented young players who had as little big-league service time as possible. That way the team could develop and, theoretically, win together before the approach of free agency repeated the Sabathia, Lee and Martinez trifecta.
The Indians did all right with part of that equation. Brantley, Carrasco and Donald will enter this season with less than a year of service time. LaPorta and Marson have fewer than two years. Masterson has two years and 108 days.
The four other players acquired -- pitchers Rob Bryson, Jason Knapp, Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price -- are still in the minors. So this group could be together a while.
But what about the talent the Indians received for their three elite players? Here's what two major league scouts and Antonetti have to say about the six players who are expected to form 24 percent of the regular-season roster.
Matt LaPorta
Scout 1: "Good effort guy, but defensive liability so he has to play a corner position. Has to impact the game with his bat. The power is there, but there are some holes in it. I wouldn't give up on him.
"He had some injuries to his lower half [hip and toe] and that may have caused him to commit [start his swing] early. That will open some holes. Maybe he couldn't stay strong through his swing because of his lower half."
Scout 2: "He hasn't developed quite as quickly as people thought. But a healthy LaPorta would be worth seeing."
Antonetti: "We just need Matt to be consistent. We saw signs of it last year, but not on a consistent basis."
Michael Brantley
Scout 1: "He's a keeper. He has the stuff to play on both sides of the ball. It's questionable how much he'll impact the game with his power, but that could develop."
Scout 2: "He's turning out to be the kind of player people envisioned. He's a ballplayer. He could start for some clubs and be a bench player on others. He should develop into a solid major-league player."
Antonetti: "He's still a young major-league player. He was better in the second half last season and we're hoping he can build on that."
Carlos Carrasco
Scout 1: "Haven't seen him that much, but the stuff is there. When that's the case, ride the stuff."
Scout 2: "There are some questions about his toughness, but that can happen to a young pitcher. He competed pretty well at the major-league level in September. All players go through a maturation process."
Antonetti: "He has all the weapons. At times he has a three above-average pitches -- fastball, change up and curveball. It's important to remember he's only 23."
Chuck Crow / The Plain DealerCarlos Carrasco showed considerable promise in last September's call-up with the Tribe, while catcher Lou Marson has defensive skills but scouts remain skeptical of his bat.
Justin Masterson
Scout 1: "With his stuff and arm slot, he looks like a back end guy. Not surprised they're starting him. That's where the value is. That's a good acquisition. There's value there."
Scout 2: "When they made Masterson the centerpiece of that trade, someone with the Indians said he's a starter. You see the results."
Antonetti: "We like the way he pitched in the second half (3-5, 3.84 ERA in 75 innings). Consistency is a key for Justin. He'll be in our rotation."
Lou Marson
Scout 1: "He threw it OK, caught it OK, but he lacked bat speed. Fine for a backup."
Scout 2: "He's a nice athletic defensive catcher with a good arm. I don't know if he's going to hit. Good backup for Carlos Santana."
Antonetti: "I have no doubt he's a better hitter than he showed last year. He was exceptional behind the plate."
Jason Donald
Scout 1: "He's a nice player. He looked very comfortable at shortstop, but I'm not sure that where's he's best suited. He's a gamer, a baseball player. I think he'd make a great utility player, but he could start for the right club."
Scout 2: "An athletic kid. Should be able to impact the game in a couple of different ways. It's questionable if there's enough there to be a starter."
Antonetti: "He'll have the opportunity to get significant playing time this year. He's been working out at short, second and third base over the winter with our infield coach Steve Smith."
The two scouts who offered opinions felt the Indians received value in each of the trades involving Sabathia, Lee and Martinez, but that value, as of yet, has not produced the kind of talent that was traded away.
"Like Forrest Gump said, trading for prospects is like a box of chocolates," said one scout. "You don't know what you've got until you take a bite."
Antonetti, more than anyone, knows that.
"When you trade for young players, some will exceed your expectations," said Antonetti. "Some will meet you expectations and some will fall short."
This is the course the Indians have chosen. LaPorta, Brantley, Carrasco, Masterson, Donald and Marson, mixed with Carlos Santana, Chris Perez, Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera and others, must take it together.