I expect the Cleveland Browns to cover the spread in a loss to the New York Giants in NFL Week 12.
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Cleveland Browns, New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers will be among NFL Week 12 winners against the spread.
At least that is how I see it -- for entertainment purposes only, of course.
I am picking NFL ATS for the second straight year. In 2015, I went 122-127-7 in the regular season and 4-6-1 in the postseason. I did manage to win the Super Bowl (Denver +5 1/2).
In this space, I decline to take the easy route when picking ATS. I pick all of the games, not a select few "hot ones'' each week. Leave that to a video. At the same time, I am realistic. I think batting .500 is an accomplishment, and I make no guarantees. (And don't yell at me too loudly when I have a bad week(s) because this is, after all, for entertainment purposes only.)
I have researched each team/matchup, but I plan on relying more on gut than anything else this season.
For continuity's sake, each week I will use the MGM Mirage lines from vegasinsider.com as of Wednesday afternoon unless noted. Games are listed as I came upon them, not by order of certainty. I do not adjust picks even if injuries occur and/or lines change between Wednesday afternoon and Sunday.
- Week 1: 9-6-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 7-9
- Week 4: 8-7
- Week 5: 7-6-1
- Week 6: 5-10
- Week 7: 10-5
- Week 8: 6-6-1
- Week 9: 6-6-1
- Week 10: 5-9
- Week 11: 11-1-2
Week 11 recap: Believe it.
Actually, I still can't. I haven't stopped floating.
In one sense, I wish Week 11 could be a "walkoff'' because I never had approached that level of accuracy and probably never will again.
The loss: Green Bay (+3) over @ Washington. It was the Sunday night game, which meant I had been unbeaten Thursday and all day Sunday.
The Redskins won, 42-24. It happened primarily because Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins was fantastic (21-of-30 for 375 yards, three touchdowns). Therefore, I don't regret the pick. Tip of the helmet to Cousins.
Week 12 predictions: I thought pressure was picking games after a bad week. Now I know the truth: Real pressure is picking after 11-1-2. My fingers are shaking -- and, to make matters worse, I don't like a lot of the spreads.
Winner (against spread, not always outright) listed first:
Thanksgiving Day
@ Detroit (-2 1/2) over Minnesota
Skinny: Lions QB Matthew Stafford once again orchestrates a fourth-quarter comeback. Lions, 24-21.
Washington (+7) over @ Dallas
Skinny: I really, really like Dak, Dez, Zeke and the sizzling Cowboys (9-1; nine straight victories). And I realize the Redskins are on the road in a short week after a Sunday night game. Regardless, Cousins finds a way to keep it just close enough. Cowboys, 30-24.
Steelers (-8 1/2) over @ Indianapolis
Skinny: Colts QB Andrew Luck (concussion) is out. Steelers, already feeling good after drilling the Browns in Week 11, get to use their offense in climate-controlled conditions. Steelers, 27-17.
Sunday afternoon
San Diego (-1) over @ Houston
Skinny: Chargers are coming off a bye; Texans, off a controversial and difficult loss to the Raiders on Monday night in Mexico City. Chargers use the rest to their advantage. Chargers, 22-19.
Tennessee (-4 1/2) over @ Chicago
Skinny: Bears can't be taken seriously. Titans and QB Marcus Mariota can. Titans, 23-10.
@ Buffalo (-7) over Jacksonville
Skinny: Bills are much better than 5-5, they are at home, and the Jaguars are bad. Bills, 26-13.
@ Baltimore (-4 1/2) over Cincinnati
Skinny: I am buying Ravens QB Joe Flacco's disgust after a loss in Dallas in Week 11. Flacco will have his guys ready, and the Bengals will feel the pain of no WR A.J. Green (hamstring). Ravens, 19-13.
@ Atlanta (-4 1/2) over Arizona
Skinny: Falcons owe me for home loss to Chargers in Week 7. Falcons, 23-17.
@ Miami (-8) over San Francisco
Skinny: Dolphins have won five straight, they are at home, and the 49ers are bad. Dolphins, 24-10.
@ New Orleans (-7) over Los Angeles
Skinny: Saints getting seven seems dangerous -- except against the Rams at home. Saints, 27-18.
@ Cleveland (+7) over N.Y. Giants
Skinny: Yes, it's true. Giants control game but Browns cover with garbage-time touchdown. Giants, 26-20.
Seattle (-6) over @ Tampa Bay
Skinny: Buccaneers are riding high after a victory in Kansas City in Week 11. Duplicating the feat against the locked-in Seahawks proves too difficult. Seahawks, 24-17.
@ Oakland (-3 1/2) over Carolina
Skinny: I'm (extremely) worried about getting hooked. Raiders, 24-20.
New England (-8) over @ N.Y. Jets
Skinny: Jets make it interesting for a while, then Patriots and QB Tom Brady do what they do. Patriots, 26-16.
Sunday night
@ Denver (-3 1/2) over Kansas City
Skinny: See Oakland-Carolina. Broncos, 23-19.
Monday night
Green Bay (+3 1/2) over @ Philadelphia
Skinny: I continue to fall for the cheesy banana in the tailpipe. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers does enough to cover. Eagles, 23-20.