Cleveland Browns have major free agent decisions on four key players, and it won't be easy to keep them.
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Other than the news that the Browns would welcome back Josh Gordon, fans also should notice how the team said it wanted to keep some of its free agents.
Vice President Sashi Brown even told media members at the NFL Combine: "It is important that we keep our own. It sends the right message to the locker room when you reward guys that do it the right way. (You) make sure that they understand that being here in Cleveland we want to build through the draft certainly but we also need to retain our guys when we get to free agency."
Which brings us to the four key free agents on their roster.
Most studies have shown the best time to extend a player's contract is when they are in their middle 20s, just coming off their rookie contracts. It's also the best time to bring in a free agent from another team.
A player who has been in the NFL for about four seasons is approaching his physical and mental peak. The only exception would be if he's sustained a serious injury early in his career.
The Browns' three prime free agents are Mitchell Schwartz, Travis Benjamin and Tashaun Gipson. On opening day of 2016, Gipson and Benjamin will be 26, Schwartz 27. That's one of the reasons the Browns want to re-sign them, but also why other teams are interested.
A strict football analytics approach would have been to sign these players before they reached the end of their contracts. That way, you don't end up competing with other teams. The Browns failed to do so.
Now, they will have to compete with other teams once free agency opens on March 9. Brown would like to sign some players before then, but it makes little sense for a player to sign unless the dollars are huge.
That's why Hue Jackson talked about the possibility of not having any of the free agents back for 2016. The veteran coach is a football lifer, he knows how free agency is so unpredictable.
ABOUT TASHAUN GIPSON
I talked to one NFL executive who knows analytics very well. He asked me what position has the "shortest shelf life." That means, the shortest careers.
"Running back," I said.
"Partly true," he said. "It's tied with one other position."
I guessed receiver.
"It's safety," he said. "Think about it. A good safety often has about as many tackles as a linebacker, but he usually weighs about 40 pounds less. These are not big guys, but they are expected to be big hitters. There always are exceptions, safeties who have long careers. But in general, their careers are like running backs -- short."
Which brings us to Gipson. He turned down a chance to sign some type of extension before last season.
Here's the situation:
1. He became a starter in 2013 under defensive coordinator Ray Horton. After the season, Horton was fired. Gipson made the Pro Bowl in 2014. He had a spotty 2015.
2. Horton is now back, and he wants Gipson.
3. Gipson was a non-drafted free agent out of Wyoming. His signing bonus was in the $5,000 range. That's right, $5K. He was paid $2.3 million last year.
4. Gipson suffered an MCL knee sprain in 2014, missing the final five games. Last season, he missed three games with a high ankle sprain.
5. How do the Browns figure Gipson's injury history and the short career of safeties into their contract offer? Is Gipson even interested in staying?
6. Cleveland.com's Tom Reed suggested making Gipson a "franchise player," meaning they would grant him a contract in the $10.6 million range for 2016. That would take him off the free-agent market.
7. In general, football analytics disciples don't like franchise tags, as the contracts are known. They are considered too expensive. When healthy, Gipson is a good player. So do they make him a highly-paid rental for one season?
8. The Browns have Donte Whitner at strong safety. His contract calls for $6.2 million (not guaranteed) in 2016. Do the Browns release Whitner, who will be 31 when the season opens and save about $4 million on the salary cap? Then they can use some of that money for Gipson. They have Ibraheim Campbell and Jordan Poyer as younger, cheaper safeties. The previous coaching staff liked both players.
ABOUT MITCHELL SCHWARTZ
Schwartz is in position to become a very, very rich man. The right tackle is in the prime spot for a huge contract. He has played every snap since being the team's second-round pick in 2012.
Here's the situation:
1. Philadelphia just signed right tackle Lane Johnson to a five-year, $56 million deal with $35 million guaranteed.
2. A safe guess is Schwartz will sign a long-term deal worth at least $10 million annually. Do they pay him more than All-Pro left tackle Joe Thomas, whose salary is $8.5 million in 2016?
3. If they don't sign Schwartz, who plays right tackle? There are no obvious candidates on the roster.
4. While Gipson's injury history may scare some teams, Schwartz's durability will make him very attractive to other teams.
ABOUT TRAVIS BENJAMIN
It's hard to gauge the value of Benjamin, whose best attribute is being a punt returner. On most teams, he would be the No. 2 receiver, perhaps not even a starter. But on the receiver-starved Browns, he was an important player.
Here's the situation:
1. Heading into 2015, Benjamin had caught 41 passes in three pro seasons. He missed eight games in 2013 because of ACL knee surgery.
2. Benjamin broke out in 2015 with 68 catches, five for touchdowns. He was an early season comet, with four TD receptions in the first three games. He cooled down after that, but still had a solid season.
3. The slight 5-foot-10, 175-pound Benjamin always looks like a candidate for an injury because of his size. He played every game in the last two seasons. But will he stay healthy?
4. Since being a fourth-round pick in 2012, Benjamin has led the NFL in punt returns with a 12.6-yard average.
5. The Browns are hoping to get Josh Gordon back. They probably will draft a receiver, as Jackson has made that position one of his top priorities. Benjamin certainly helps the Browns, but it would seem Gipson and Schwartz are more important.
ABOUT ALEX MACK
Mack has $24 million and three years remaining on his contract, but the three-time Pro Bowl center has the right to become a free agent, and is expected to do just that.
Here's the situation:
1. Mack is 30, so he's beyond the best time for a large contract, according to analytics.
2. Analytics also would say you don't pay a center $10 million a year. Mack will be in line for at least that much and will become the NFL's highest-paid center. Analytics also would have been strongly against signing veterans such as Tramon Williams, Karlos Dansby, Dwayne Bowe and Whitner.
3. The football people can make a strong case for keeping Mack and Schwartz, along with Thomas. You can argue the line was overrated and overpaid last season, but think about trying to replace those guys? That would be very expensive, too.
4. They drafted Cameron Erving to possibly replace Mack, but the 19th pick in the 2015 draft didn't look close to ready last season. He played some tackle and guard, and often was physically overmatched. Maybe he will develop into a starter, but he's a project right now.
5. The Browns have a lot of salary cap space. They will carry about $20 million into 2016, and can easily add more to that number. Players will leave. The new salary cap is expected to go up. They do not have an elite veteran quarterback who will chew up salary cap room. A veteran center can really help a young quarterback in terms of calling out defenses and blitzes.
WHAT TO DO
1. I'd pay Schwartz and Mack ... even "overpay" them. A rookie quarterback needs all the help available on the line.
2. Offer Benjamin a decent contract, but don't overpay.
3. No matter what happens with Benjamin, take a receiver in the first few rounds. Get a playmaker. If Gordon comes back, then you have two big targets at receiver.
4. Be careful with Gipson. His health concerns are ... well ... a concern. Is there a young safety who can be an impact player?
5. Start to sign younger players before they reach free agency so they don't end up in this position soon.
