With conference races tight in both the Horizon League and the Mid-American Conference, avoiding the late-season upset will be key to winning a championship.
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Start to expect the unexpected over the final three weeks of the college basketball season. That became apparent over the past weekend as both Cleveland State and Akron suffered tough road losses.
Both teams remain prime contenders in the Horizon League and Mid-American Conference, respectively. But those setbacks, even on the road, now leave both teams with no margin for error left.
Kent State pulled a big upset at Toledo, but now the Golden Flashes have to avoid the same fate that hit CSU and Akron, which is losing to a team behind them in the standings.
Cleveland State (16-11, 10-3): The Vikings may see Charlie Lee's driving layup that rolled off the rim at the buzzer against Detroit tantalizing them in their dreams the rest of the season. That miss Friday night against the Titans, even with Sunday's win over UIC, still has CSU a game behind Valparaiso (24-4, 11-2) and a half game ahead of Green Bay (20-6, 9-3).
The Vikings have a rare late-season non-conference game this week at Western Carolina on Tuesday, followed by road games at Green Bay and Milwaukee on Friday and Sunday. CSU's seniors, Lee and Anton Grady in particular, have been focused on a title this season.
A winning week in conference play will set up the season-ender with Valparaiso on Feb. 27 at 10 p.m. in the Wolstein Center for at least a share of first place.
Akron Zips (17-8, 8-4): All season long Keith Dambrot has said that at some point, expect to see 6-11 Pat Forsythe and 6-10 Isaiah Johnson on the floor together. It happened in the Zips 75-73 loss at Eastern Michigan. The problem was, those two post players were a combined 7-for-19 from point-blank range.
"We had a lot of looks, but we didn't make a lot,'' Dambrot said. "We got the ball where we wanted to get it, we just didn't make enough around the basket."
Don't be surprised to see more of the same this week as the Zips now face a critical Wednesday home game with Toledo. There seems to be a kryptonite opponent in the MAC for every team -- a school they just don't match up well against. For Toledo it's Kent State; for Kent State it's Buffalo; for Bowling Green, it's the Zips; and for the Zips it's Toledo.
With senior swingman Deji Ibitayo nursing a sore back, taking away a needed perimeter defender, slowing down the Rockets with their inside power could be a big difference for the Zips.
Kent State (17-8, 8-4): It's not over. KSU's stands 2-3 in its current run of six road games out of eight with three games still to go in this stretch.
Upcoming Ball State at home, Ohio University and Miami on the road are all behind Kent in the standings, but fighting for MAC Tournament position just like the Golden Flashes. To finish this stretch 4-4 would be key.
Two big senior moments for Kent last week in its 76-75 overtime upset at Toledo:
Senior swingman Craig Brown, who entered the game without a field goal since Jan. 10, scored an unexpected six points in the first half against the Rockets when KSU was laboring for points.
And at the end, 7-4 senior center Blake Vedder did exactly as instructed, forcing UT to inbounds a desperation pass into the backcourt with one second left, instead of at the rim for an alley-oop or a foul.
"Credit Blake, because that's not as easy as it looks, coming off the bench cold,'' Senderoff said. "Your instincts are to slap at the ball and try to deflect it, but we wanted him to face-guard the rim and make them throw it back. That's what he did. And credit Craig, too. He's a senior, but he has not given up on this season. We still need him, and he really helped."
On the Horizon: There are pretty clear lines drawn in the HL this season with Valparaiso, Green Bay and Cleveland State at the top; Oakland, Milwaukee and Detroit in the middle, then Wright State, Youngstown State and Illinois-Chicago at the bottom.
Those back end teams can impact the league greatly down the stretch by pulling upsets. Detroit started it with an upset win over CSU last Friday. The Titans, and Wright State also still have a game to play against Valparaiso. Oakland has one left with Green Bay. An upset down the stretch could create havoc in the standings at the end.
Bowling Green's defense has been key to the Falcons rise to the top of Mid-American Conference play. Lonnie Timmons III/PLAIN DEALER
MAC Attack: How wild has this season been in league play? Bowling Green sits alone in first place. That's just the second time this season there has not been a tie at the top of the standings. On Jan. 27, Kent State was alone in first place. For one game.
The Falcons (17-6, 9-3), however, seem to have some stick 'em on their first-place grip with six to play. Of their three toughest games remaining -- two vs. Buffalo and one vs. Kent -- two are at home. Not so good for Toledo.
It's loss to Kent comes just before UT plays four of its final six on the road, starting Wednesday at Akron and with stops ahead at Western Michigan, Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan.
Around the state: The Xavier Musketeers (16-10, 7-7) continue to walk a tightrope toward a possible NCAA Tournament bid as they can't seem to get more than a game above .500 in league play. Just as critical this week is the annual rivalry game with neighboring Cincinnati. That win could be a must have for NCAA at-large consideration.
The Dayton Flyers (19-5, 9-3) sit atop the Atlantic 10, with head coach Archie Miller working on a Coach of the Year resume, considering all of this effort in A-10 play has come without his suspended starting and backup centers for violation of team rules.
Top Four in the state: Dayton, Cincinnati, Ohio State, Bowling Green. On the radar, Xavier, Toledo. Folks better start believing in the BG Falcons as coach Chris Jans has a veteran unit primed for a MAC title. And don't sleep on Toledo just yet. Before that upset loss to Kent State, the Rockets had won six straight. They could do that again.