Notre Dame is currently No. 5 in our "First Four" ranking, just outside the playoff picture. But that will change one way or another after Saturday.
COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Want to make life even more difficult for a Big Ten trying to make the College Football Playoff? Throw independent Notre Dame into the mix.
The Fighting Irish are No. 5 in the latest "First Four" poll from our 13-member national mock committee, but Notre Dame isn't going to stay there. After Saturday's 8 p.m. showdown in Tallahasee against Florida State, the No. 2 team in our poll, the Irish will be either up or down next week.
If they're down after absorbing their first loss, they may not be out.
Saturday's game is more of a must-win for the Seminoles, who have wins so far over Oklahoma State (No. 15 in the AP poll) and Clemson (No. 24), but after Notre Dame don't have another ranked team on their regular-season schedule.
Lose at home to the Irish, and the defending national champs won't have a chance for the kind of impressive win that might help shake off that loss.
Notre Dame has a win so far over No. 23 Stanford, and after Florida State has games remaining against current No. 17 Arizona State and No. 22 USC. That means there's more opportunity.
Frankly, with the overall lack of strength of the ACC, a one-loss Big Ten champ like Ohio State or Michigan State might make a strong case against a one-loss FSU that lost at home to Notre Dame.
If it's Notre Dame that takes this loss, but doesn't lose again, the Irish will have more late-season chances to impress. The Seminoles and Irish may in the end up facing the same number of ranked teams. But with the off-field issues surrounding Florida State QB Jameis Winston this season, it's the Seminoles who may be more likely to fall off the radar with a loss.
And any top team falling is good for the eventual Big Ten champ. So the best bet for Ohio State and Michigan State may be to root for Notre Dame, rather than seeing a Florida State win that might allow both teams facing each other Saturday night remain in the playoff picture.
Here's my full ballot this week that I submitted for the AP poll, with Ohio State moving to No. 15, up two spots from No. 17, on my ballot. Overall, the Buckeyes were No. 13 in both polls this week. The top of this ballot also serves as my top 10 for the "First Four."
Top Ten
1. Mississippi State
2. Ole Miss
3. Florida State
4. Baylor
5. Notre Dame
6. Arizona
7. Oregon
8. Auburn
9. Michigan State
10. TCU
The Rest
11. Oklahoma
12. Alabama
13. Oklahoma State
14. Kansas State
15. Ohio State
16. Georgia
17. Arizona State
18. Nebraska
19. USC
20. Marshall
21. Minnesota
22. East Carolina
23. Utah
24. Iowa
25. UCLA
About the First Four Poll: Each week during the college football season, our committee of 13 national experts will rank the teams competing for a spot in the inaugural College Football Playoff. These rankings will provide a look at how the contenders for the four playoff berths stack up in advance of the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings on Oct. 28 and provide an alternative perspective to those official rankings thereafter.
About the voters: We've assembled a baker's dozen of top college sports writers from coast to coast. They are: Nick Baumgardner, MLive.com; Ken Goe, The Oregonian; David Jones, PennLive.com; Jim Kleinpeter, NOLA.com/The Times-Picayune; Gary Laney, Advance Digital National Desk; Tom Layberger, Advance Digital National Desk; Doug Lesmerises, Northeast Ohio Media Group; Nick O'Malley, MassLive.com; Kevin Scarbinsky, Alabama Media Group; Keith Sargeant, NJ.com; Patrick Stevens, Syracuse.com; Jim Waggoner, Staten Island Advance; Brad Wilson, lehighvalleylive.com/The Express-Times.
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The First Four
Mississippi State running back Josh Robinson (13) celebrates his 1-yard second-half touchdown run against Auburn as teammates run over to congratulate him in an NCAA college football game in Starkville, Miss., Saturday, Oct 11, 2014. Mississippi State won 38-23. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)Rogelio V. Solis
1. Mississippi State (130 points), 6-0
Previous rank: No. 3
Last week: def. Auburn, 38-23. This week: bye.
Projected playoff position: vs. Baylor in Sugar Bowl.
Davis Wade Stadium is not a place even the strongest teams want to visit. Texas A&M and Auburn both lost there in the last two weeks, and that pair of impressive wins makes Dak Prescott and the Bulldogs the First Four Poll's first unanimous No. 1 team of the season. Here's their issue going forward: The second half of the schedule includes three road games -- at Kentucky, Alabama and Ole Miss -- against opponents with a combined 16-2 record. Can the cowbell magic survive on the road?
Voters' take:
"This gets trickier every week. I've made Mississippi State a shaky No. 1. The Bulldogs' consecutive wins over LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn are impressive at first glance, although LSU and Texas A&M might not be as good in retrospect as they appeared to be when Mississippi State beat them. I'm still waiting for the Bulldogs to win a big game on the road. And, no, at this point LSU doesn't count." -- Ken Goe, The Oregonian
"So far, no teams have been tested as much and have passed those tests as well as State and Ole Miss. The Bullies get the edge because, while Bo Wallace has matured, Dak Prescott has grown into Cam Newton Jr." -- Kevin Scarbinksy, Alabama Media Group
Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston (5) calls a play in the huddle during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Syracuse on Saturday, Oct. 11, 2014, in Syracuse, N.Y. (AP Photo/Mike Groll)Mike Groll
2. Florida State (110), 6-0
Previous rank: No. 2
Last week: def. Syracuse, 38-20. This week: vs. Notre Dame.
Projected playoff position: vs. Ole Miss in Rose Bowl.
If somebody is going to take down FSU before the playoffs, it would seem like Notre Dame would have the best chance. The Irish are, after all, the last ranked team on FSU's schedule and that includes a potential ACC championship game matchup, considering that no team in the ACC Coastal Division is currently ranked. This is good for FSU's chances at going unbeaten, bad for their chances if the Seminoles slip up.
Voters' take:
"One could make the argument that Florida State is peaking at the right time, so I will. The Seminoles aren't steamrolling everyone like they did last season, but they're also overcoming a good deal of early season issues to get set for a strong run to end the season, assuming they beat Notre Dame next week." -- Nick O'Malley, MassLive.com
"Hard to penalize Florida State for just continuing to win, but even harder to ignore Mississippi State's unprecedented accomplishments." -- Brad Wilson, The Express-Times/lehighvalleylive.com
Mississippi defensive back Cody Prewitt (25) returns an interception for a 75-yard touchdown against Texas A&M during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 11, 2014, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Bob Levey)Bob Levey
3. Ole Miss (107), 6-0
Previous rank: No. 4
Last week: def. Texas A&M, 35-20. This week: vs. Tennessee.
Projected playoff pairing: vs. No. 2 Florida State in Rose Bowl.
The schedule is setting up perfectly for the Rebels, who have two more ranked teams to play, both in Oxford. Not that the road is particularly daunting for this team, which sent the Kyle Field crowd home early by building a 35-7 lead early in the fourth quarter in College Station. The Ole Miss defense, which also did a number on Alabama, may be the nation's best.
Voters' take:
"Ole Miss is for real. Although, I'm starting to think that Texas A&M is not." -- Nick O'Malley, MassLive.com
"Speaking of the Rebels, another impressive win for them, too, a resounding 35-20 decision at A&M, proving the defeat of Bama last week was no fluke." -- David Jones, PennLive.com
Baylor wide receiver Antwan Goodley (5) pulls down a touchdown pass over TCU safety Michael Downing (25) in the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 11, 2014, in Waco, Texas. (AP Photo/The Waco Tribune-Herald, Jerry Larson)Jerry Larson
4. Baylor (85), 6-0
Previous rank: No. 5
Last week: def. TCU, 61-58. This week: at West Virginia.
Projected playoff position: vs. Mississippi State in the Sugar Bowl.
After piling up five wins over teams ranked below the top 40 in the most recent Sagarin ratings, the Bears finally broke through against elite competition, rallying from 21 points behind to win a shootout over TCU. Bryce Petty threw six touchdown passes for the Bears, who have a tough out this week against a West Virginia team that has two competitive losses to Alabama and Oklahoma as the blemishes in a 4-2 worksheet. If Baylor gets by this one, four of its last five games are at home.
Voters' take:
"One-loss Auburn and not 6-0 Baylor at No. 4 [on my ballot]? What in the name of Grant Teaff is going on here? TCU was the first varsity opponent the Bears played (okay, Texas is not that bad) and they allowed 58 points. The Tigers' lone flaw came at the hands of the new top team in the land." -- Tom Layberger, Advance Digital National Desk
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The Next Four
5. Notre Dame (69), 6-0
Previous rank: No. 6
Last week: def. North Carolina, 50-43. This week: at Florida State.
The Irish have one signature win over Stanford, and a road win over FSU this week would likely propel them over other undefeated teams. That is, of course, far easier said than done. Notre Dame struggled to put away a below-average North Carolina team. Even with FSU's own struggle to be sharp this season, that performance won't cut it in Tallahassee.
6. Auburn (53), 5-1
Previous rank: No. 1
Last week: lost to Mississippi State, 38-23. This week: bye.
Sure the Tigers just suffered their first loss, but don't count them out just yet. Auburn has a road win at Kansas State that makes its path to this point the most impressive of the one-loss teams. It won't be easy for AU to climb back into the First Four though. Still ahead are dates with South Carolina, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama. That might be the toughest second-half schedule in the country.
7. Alabama (52), 5-1
Previous rank: NR
Last week: def. Arkansas, 14-13. This week: vs. Texas A&M.
First, a loss at Ole Miss. Then, a scare at Arkansas. It's been a long time since Alabama has looked this vulnerable. Can a return home be what the doctor ordered for Nick Saban's bunch? Reeling Texas A&M is the first visitor to Bryant-Denny Stadium since the Tide pounded Florida, 42-21, on Sept. 20.
8. Oregon (36), 5-1
Previous rank: NR
Last week: def. UCLA, 42-30. This week: vs. Washington.
The Ducks are back in the "Next Four" after their second win over a ranked team, the first on the road. There will be opportunities for many more. Three 1-loss teams, two 2-loss teams and two ranked teams dot their second-half schedule.
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The Rest
Dropped out: No. 7 Arizona, No. 8 TCU.
Others receiving votes: TCU (18), Michigan State (17), Oklahoma (15), Georgia (12), Arizona (8), Marshall (3).