Oregon QB Marcus Mariota is the early favorite here, while the Alabama running backs, as well as Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon and Nebraska running back Ameer Abdullah, should also be in the mix.
COLUMBUS, Ohio – Braxton Miller’s Heisman Trophy strategy is obvious – wait them out.
Ninth in the voting this season, the Ohio State quarterback will be back in 2014 as the third-leading vote getter among the guys returning to college. Ahead of him is Florida State QB Jameis Winston, the Heisman winner and undefeated national champion as a redshirt freshman, and Baylor QB Bryce Petty, who finished seventh.
No. 2 AJ McCarron of Alabama, No. 3 Jordan Lynch of Northern Illinois, No. 4 Andre Williams of Boston College and No. 8 Derek Carr of Fresno State were seniors, while No. 5 Johnny Manziel of Texas A&M and No. 6 Tre Mason of Auburn declared early for the draft. No. 10 Ka’Deem Carey, the running back from Arizona, is expected to declare as well.
That will put Miller back in the same position he was entering this season, as No. 3 among the returnees. He finished fifth in the Heisman voting in 2012, and then saw Manziel, the winner, and USC receiver Marquise Lee, who finished fourth, also return.
So where should that put Miller in the field as people talk about Heisman candidates entering 2014? As it was with Terrelle Pryor, who never wound up in the top 10 of the Heisman race, a big-time Ohio State quarterback should always be a Heisman candidate.
But the field looked very crowded at times this season, before losses and rough games derailed some leading contenders. And many of them will be back. I’ll follow the logic of the Heisman Pundit and say that repeating is very difficult, obviously, so Winston isn’t my favorite right now. But neither is Miller.
The contenders:
1. Marcus Mariota, Jr. Oregon QB: The Ducks’ quarterback puts up huge stats and he’ll play the biggest game of the first month of the regular season when Oregon hosts Michigan State on Sept. 6 in what almost certainly will be a top-10 matchup. Given the attention the Spartans’ defense received this season, justifiably, Mariota would make a statement if the Ducks can move the ball. And the Spartans will be replacing several key starters, including All-American cornerback Darqueze Dennard. But if Michigan State shuts him down, Mariota will be in trouble.
He was rolling, with the Ducks at 8-0, averaging 319 yards of total offense and nearly four touchdowns per game, before a 26-20 loss to Stanford this season. But in that offense, the numbers will always be there – he averaged 73 more total yards per game than Miller.
Given that Mariota also should be a darling of NFL draft analysts – he probably would have been a top-10 pick had he turned pro -- he’ll open with an edge.
2. Jameis Winston, So. Florida State QB: You can't do any better on the field than an undefeated national championship season while winning the Heisman. Off the field is a different story, and it's a story that may not be over, with the woman who accused Winston of sexual assault planning a lawsuit against him.
Alabama running back Derrick Henry carried the ball just 36 times this season, but he opened some eyes in the Sugar Bowl.Patrick Semansky, Associated Press 3. Alabama running backs: With A.J. McCarron gone, Alabama will still be Alabama. But the Crimson Tide will have a new look, especially if Nick Saban replaces offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, who left for Michigan and had his introductory news conference with the Wolverines on Friday, with a play-caller who wants to spread it out more and play more up-tempo. That could mean bigger numbers for whomever the next QB is.
Or it could mean a chance for the primary ballcarrier to put together big numbers and become the first running back to win the award since Alabama’s Mark Ingram in 2009. The leading candidates to be that guy are junior T.J. Yeldon, who ran for 1,235 yards and 14 touchdowns as a sophomore this season, and sophomore Derrick Henry, who carried the ball just 36 times but averaged 10.6 yards per tote. At 6-3 and 238 pounds, Henry has folks drooling over his physical skills, especially after running for 100 yards on eight carries in the Sugar Bowl loss to Oklahoma.
4. Braxton Miller, Sr. Ohio State QB: The nonconference schedule is more difficult than this season, with games against Navy, Virginia Tech and Cincinnati. But the Buckeyes still may not play a ranked team until game nine against Michigan State on Nov. 8. That's a long time to wait for a major matchup.
5. Redshirt freshman QB of the year: The last two Heisman winners were redshirt freshman quarterbacks starting for the first time after replacing first-round NFL draft picks. Johnny Manziel did it at Texas A&M after stepping in for Ryan Tannehill, and Winston did it with Florida State after sliding in for E.J. Manuel. Who might fit that criteria?
Louisville and old/new coach Bobby Petrino, who is replacing Charlie Strong, will be looking to replace Teddy Bridgewater, who will be a top-five pick in the draft. Petrino knows how to get an offense going, with Will Gardner, who served as Bridgewater’s backup this season as a redshirt freshman, looking like the most likely guy to take over as redshirt sophomore. So he almost fits.
Arizona and Rich Rodriguez aren’t losing an NFL quality quarterback, but the Wildcats could start a redshirt freshman next year in Anu Solomon, who was the No. 2 dual-threat QB in the Class of 2013 according to Rivals.com.
Then there’s a true freshman with tons of potential in Clemson’s Deshaun Watson. Tigers QB Tajh Boyd ended his career with an Orange Bowl win over Ohio State, and Watson, a player the Buckeyes were very interested in, has enrolled early and will fight in spring ball for the new starting job. With million-dollar offensive coordinator Chad Morris, if Watson picks up the offense quickly, he could make some noise right away.
6. Other big number quarterbacks: Oregon State’s Sean Mannion, UCLA’s Brett Hundley and Baylor’s Petty, who ranked No. 6, No. 23 and No. 8 in the nation in total offense this season, are back. Hundley and the Bruins, who play Texas in a neutral-site game in Arlington, Texas, on Sept. 13 and then get Oregon, USC and Stanford at home, could be darkkhorse national title contenders.
Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon (25) is returning to the Badgers and should be in the Heisman conversation, especially if he plays well in an early showdown against LSU.Marvin Fong, The Plain Dealer 7. Big Ten running backs: Other Big Ten Heisman talk? Sure. Carlos Hyde is gone, but the two other leading rushers from the Big Ten this season both decided to stick around. And they could actually factor into this face. Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon (1,609 rushing yards, 124 yards per game) and Nebraska’a Ameer Abdullah (1,690 and 130) both have the resumes to garner attention. Gordon will have a showcase game right away, with the Badgers opening up against LSU in Houston on Aug. 30. Abdullah’s big nonconference game is in Lincoln against Miami on Sept. 20. Neither play Ohio State.