Analyzing the Cleveland Cavaliers' decision in the June 27 draft makes it clear how difficult it is to fully invest in Kentucky's Nerlens Noel.
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Welcome to our Father's Day edition, where we're talkin'...
About Kyrie Irving and Nerlens Noel...
The Cavs made Duke's Irving the top pick in 2011 despite playing only 11 college games -- a grand total of 303 minutes. They were very concerned about Irving's toe injury. But they also were enthralled with his talent.
There may have been a major-college freshman guard who has shot .529 from the field, .462 on 3-pointers and .901 at the foul line -- but I couldn't find one. While he had sizzling stats from the outside, Irving's main attribute was ball-handling and driving to the basket.
Did anyone know that Irving would average 20.6 points, shooting .459 from the field in his first two NBA seasons? Not even the Cavs dared to dream that much. But fans also know the rest ... injuries.
The toe hasn't been a problem. But he has had injuries to a finger, shoulder and also had a minor concussion. He's played in 110 of 148 NBA games. Irving is only 21. Even if he's somewhat fragile, he has a chance to become an outstanding player -- especially if new coach Mike Brown can convince him to make a decent defensive effort.
As the 2011 draft approached, it helped that Irving returned to action for the team's three NCAA Tournament games. He then visited Cleveland for a personal workout, one that inspired former coach Byron Scott to compare Irving to star point guard Chris Paul.
In other words, the Cavs were reasonably confident that Irving was healthy on draft day.The same can't be said for Kentucky big man Nerlens Noel. It's why the Cavs still aren't sure if he's the right choice at No. 1 -- despite what most mock drafts indicate.
They love his defense, especially shot-blocking and quickness that leads to steals and deflections. He averaged 9.5 rebounds in 31 minutes, good numbers for an 18-year-old in the SEC.
Two knee injuries in four years are a major worry. Little discussed is the injury to a growth plate in his knee, wiping out most of his sophomore high-school season. It's the same knee that suffered the ACL injury in February, ending Noel's freshman season at Kentucky after 24 games. He is not expected to play at least until December.
The other issues are a lack of offense. At this point, he mostly dunks. Eighty percent of his field goals came within five feet of the rim. His 6-11, 206-pound frame is a slight concern, but he won't be 19 until next April. He can add weight and strength.
The bottom line?
In 2011, the Cavs knew there were caution lights about Irving's durability, but his talent made them say, "We gotta have the guy."
In 2012, they had the same feeling about Anthony Davis, and offered their entire draft to New Orleans for the rights to the first pick. But that's not the case right now about Noel -- or anyone else in this draft.
About the Cavaliers...
1. The problem is no one in this draft is viewed as a "gotta have" type player. Noel's health issue makes him one of the bigger risks, but there is a reward if he becomes a shot-blocker who changes the game on the defensive end.
2. The Cavs still have these players under serious consideration, in no real order: Alex Len, Anthony Bennett, Ben McLemore, Nerlens Noel and Otto Porter. Some people believe Victor Oladipo is in the group, but he's a long shot.
3. Before the lottery delivered the No. 1 pick, I was convinced they were hoping to end up with a pick high enough to grab Porter. The sophomore from Georgetown is the one true small forward in the first round, a very solid player. He's long-armed at 6-8 who shot 48 percent from the field -- and an impressive 42 percent on 3-pointers.
4. The Cavs are team that needs a small forward. Porter averaged 16.2 points, 7.5 rebounds and was the Big East Player of the Year. He moves very well without the ball, rare in a young player. I wonder if they are circling back to Porter because he is a safe pick in a draft seemingly void of impact players.
5. Like most teams, they consider 42 percent shooting from 3-point range to be an excellent indicator of being able to connect from the outside, even though the college 3-point line is shorter. It's why Irving at nearly 47 percent was eye-popping. Porter and McLemore are both at 42 percent.
6. I do know the Cavs are intrigued by a 3-guard rotation of Dion Waiters, McLemore and Irving. They like Len's size (7-1, 255 pounds), but his offense is raw and he's coming off foot surgery. Bennett may be the most physically gifted scorer in the draft, but he's 6-8, 240 pounds. He's mostly a power forward who has major struggles on defense.
7. The point is the Cavs can make a case for several players -- but not a strong, no-doubt case for any.
About Brandon Weeden ...
Brandon Weeden completed minicamp having shown plenty of positive signs to Browns coaches.Joshua Gunter, The Plain Dealer
The Browns were very pleased with how Weeden threw the ball and just seemed more confident in minicamp. The coaches were excited about his ability to get the ball downfield -- and how several receivers responded in the new up-tempo passing game.
Travis Benjamin and Greg Little were especially impressive. Josh Gordon had some very good moments, but there is caution because of the pending suspension. Davone Bess is the possession receiver this team has needed for years.
Now, the coaches are challenging Weeden to study the new playbook harder than ever before. This is his chance to establish himself as a starting quarterback. If he fails with Norv Turner and Rob Chudzinski calling the plays and drawing up the Xs and Os, that's on him.
No more excuses about learning an offense not fitted to his skills.
About the Browns' salary cap...
When Joe Banner ran the business side of the Eagles, he liked to sign players before they reached free agency. Part of the reason the Browns have about $30 million left on the salary cap is they want to sign some of their current players.
1. They will begin serious talks with center Alex Mack, a free agent at the end of the season. He will make about $5.5 million between his regular salary and a roster bonus. He is a major part of the line and has never missed a snap since being a first-round pick in 2009.
2. Joe Haden has two years left on his contract. With the Eagles, Banner often signed players to extensions with two years left. The question on Haden is the suspension from last year (four games for Adderall). The new front office and coaches may want to see how he performs this season before making a major commitment.
3. T.J. Ward is in his final contract year. The main concern with him is durability, as he ended the last two seasons on the injured list. The coaches like young safeties Johnson Bademosi and Tashaun Gipson. They drafted Notre Dame safety Jamoris Slaughter (recovering from Achilles surgery) in the sixth round. They want protection in case Ward is hurt again.
4. John Greco has impressed, and is on the final year of an $800,000 deal. The Browns may consider an extension, especially if Greco establishes himself as a starting guard in training camp.
5. Phil Taylor has two years left. The key is durability, as he missed six games last season with a torn pectoral muscle. Also, the Browns want to watch him in the 3-4 defense.
6. Like Taylor, Jabaal Sheard has two years left. The Browns really like how he is adapting from a 4-3 defensive end to 3-4 outside linebacker. They will want to see more once real football starts, but he has made an outstanding first impression and could be playing his way into the team's long-term plans.
About Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco...
Corey Kluber's emergence this season is a reflection on his ability and willingness to work on the inside part of the plate, says Terry Pluto.LM Otero, Associated Press
1. The Indians know exactly what Carrasco must do to become a viable starter -- watch Corey Kluber. For years, Kluber was much like Carrasco. He had a fastball in the 93-96 mph range, a strong breaking ball and decent control. But in the majors, he struggled. The lesson the coaches were giving Kluber is the same they are now delivering to Carrasco -- you can't throw everything on the outside part of the plate.
2. I know, Carrasco got in trouble for hitting batters. This is not about plunking people. It is about throwing hard stuff on the inside corner, breaking bats. That is what has made Kluber a pleasant surprise at 4-4 with a 4.08 ERA. At 27, he has claimed the inside corner.
3. Kluber's fastball averages 92.6 mph. He often hits 96. His curveball is 82 mph and it drops straight down, and is his most effective pitch against left-handed hitters. He starts it over the middle, and it breaks inside and falls about a foot. There is the danger of hanging a breaking pitch, but it doesn't happen often.
4. Kluber has 57 strikeouts in 57 1/3 innings, compared to only 12 walks. He throws 63 percent of his first pitches for strikes, the best of any Tribe starter. The worst is Ubaldo Jimenez (55 percent). So he throws hard, throws strikes and has a nasty breaking pitch. For years, Kluber averaged nearly a strikeout per inning, and only now is has really figured out how to pitch.
5. That's why the Tribe is being patient with the 25-year-old Carrasco, whose average fastball is 94.1 mph. He has lit up the radar gun at 97-98 at times. He does have a hard, sharp breaking pitch. His control has been above-average for most of his career. But he has been reluctant to throw to the inside corner.
About the Tribe . . .
1. Watching Drew Stubbs slide under the catcher's tag to score the winning run in Friday's game is a reason to consider what the Tribe has in the outfielder obtained from the Reds in the Shin-Soo Choo trade. Remember, that deal was mostly about Choo becoming a free agent at the end of this season and the Tribe picking up pitching prospect Trevor Bauer. Relievers Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw, especially, have been a real bonus as part of that three-way deal.
2. But Stubbs has helped, especially when you consider he is a good outfielder in center or right field. He runs hard on every ball, and can get from first to third base in a wink of an eye. He has six steals.
3. Stubbs' value as a hitter depends upon when he plays. Against lefties, he's batting .274 (.804 OPS) this season. It's .216 vs. righties. Over the previous three years, it's the same: .275 vs. lefties, .225 vs. righties. For a team that has been almost helpless against lefties in recent years, Stubbs is a significant addition.
4. When the Tribe signed Ryan Raburn to a minor-league contract, it felt like buying a lottery ticket with little chance of even a modest payoff. He batted only .171 for the Tigers in 2012, and there was little market for him after the season. Rayburn has been strong in 2013, hitting .289 with eight homers and 21 RBI. He's a .313 batter vs. lefties, another plus. He is above average in right field, and can play second and third base.
5. From 2009 to '11, Raburn averaged 15 homers and 48 RBI for the Tigers. While he was never able to be a full-time player, he had value -- and the Tribe has cashed in on this little transaction. Having players such as Rayburn, Stubbs and steady Mike Aviles give the Tribe a real, big-league bench. With Asdrubal Cabrera hurt, Aviles has been impressive as the regular shortstop. He has one error in 23 games, and his bat has value. Aviles is batting .264 with four homers, five stolen bases and brings a certain grit to the game.
6. Add in Yan Gomes (who came to the Tribe along with Aviles from Toronto for Esmil Rogers), and manager Terry Francona has options when it comes to guys who can play several positions. Toronto now has Rogers (2-2, 3.21) in its rotation.
7. Tribe fans are now seeing the other side of Mark Reynolds. The Reynolds who can look so lost at home plate you'd swear he'll never get another hit. Heading into Saturday night's game, Reynolds was batting .189 with five homers and 19 RBI since May 1. But Saturday, he did hit a homer. This came after the best April (.301, eight homers, 25 RBI) in his career.
8. Is part of the reason for the slump because Reynolds is playing so much third base, a difficult position for him? Or is it because he's so outrageously streaky, a pattern for his career? Usually, he's a prime fastball hitter, but he's seemed late even on those pitches. At some point, he'll be hot again, but who knows when. In case you were wondering, Reynolds ranks sixth in the league with 75 strikeouts. Stubbs (70) is seventh. The leader is Houston's Chris Carter (96).